Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T13:18:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

04
0x0446…cc69
other · 660 markets active 0h ago
0.5score
+$357 +21%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$99 · open +$385
avoidriskycopy
~ RISKY Fresh edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$1,262
Realized+$99
Unrealized+$385
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses119 / 168
Est. fees paid−$15
Open positions423
Markets (closed)287 / 660
History coverage6d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day576.8
Drawdown48%
Kalshi-fit57%
Chart Positions 423 History 287 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$94
7 days+$99
14 days+$99
30 days+$99
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Dexter Lawrence play for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in Week 1 of the 2026-27 NFL regular season? Yes 0¢ 27¢ $0 $21 +$21 (+8783%)
Will Orlando Squeeze finish in 1st place at the Major League Pickleball St Petersburg Event? Yes 3¢ 36¢ $2 $19 +$18 (+1022%)
Will Puka Nacua be on the cover of Madden NFL 27? Yes 3¢ 40¢ $1 $17 +$15 (+1225%)
Will Iwaki FC win on 2026-03-08? No 1¢ 50¢ $0 $17 +$16 (+6683%)
Will Jahmyr Gibbs be on the cover of Madden NFL 27? Yes 3¢ 43¢ $1 $14 +$13 (+1175%)
Will Warren Zaïre-Emery win the Young Player Award at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 11¢ $2 $10 +$8 (+354%)
Will NIKE Q4 Greater China revenue be above $1.4B? Yes 11¢ 26¢ $4 $10 +$6 (+144%)
Will Texas Ranchers finish in 1st place at the Major League Pickleball St Petersburg Event? Yes 3¢ 38¢ $1 $9 +$9 (+1150%)
Will Maxx Crosby play for Baltimore Ravens next? Yes 0¢ 11¢ $0 $9 +$8 (+2432%)
Will Miami Pickleball Club finish in 1st place at the Major League Pickleball St Petersburg Event? Yes 3¢ 34¢ $1 $9 +$8 (+1033%)
Will Chiefs win the 2026 Super Rugby Pacific Grand Final? No 49¢ 77¢ $5 $8 +$3 (+56%)
Will ground beef hit $9 per pound in 2026? No 4¢ 54¢ $1 $7 +$7 (+1166%)
Will Cade Cunningham be on the cover of NBA 2K27? Yes 26¢ 49¢ $4 $7 +$3 (+88%)
Will Labour Party win the popular vote in the 2026 New Zealand legislative election by 0-5%? Yes 5¢ 46¢ $1 $7 +$6 (+918%)
Will Peter Sundin Soulé advance from the CA-16 primary election? No 4¢ 46¢ $1 $7 +$6 (+1055%)
Will Club Blooming win on 2026-05-23? No 41¢ 58¢ $5 $7 +$2 (+42%)
Will Canada have an Ebola case in 2026? Yes 11¢ 34¢ $2 $6 +$4 (+201%)
Will Kenan Yıldız win the Young Player Award at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 4¢ $3 $6 +$4 (+132%)
Will USD/KRW hit 1300 (Low) in 2026? Yes 30¢ 44¢ $4 $6 +$2 (+48%)
Will Japan Q2 GDP growth (annualized) be between 0.8% and 1.6%? Yes 4¢ 39¢ $1 $6 +$6 (+846%)
Will ground beef hit $8 per pound in 2026? No 26¢ 40¢ $4 $6 +$2 (+53%)
Sinaloa Gov. Ruben Rocha extradited to US by June 30? Yes 9¢ 11¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+18%)
Will the National Liberal Party (PNL) be included in the next Romanian government? No 44¢ 40¢ $7 $6 −$1 (-9%)
Will Matt Little be the Democratic nominee for MN-02? Yes 53¢ 80¢ $4 $6 +$2 (+52%)
Will Japan Q2 GDP growth (annualized) be less than -2.4%? Yes 4¢ 39¢ $1 $6 +$5 (+800%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Syria win on 2026-06-09? Jun 14 $3 +$2 +61%
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Pittsburgh Pirates vs Jun 14 $2 +$2 +100%
Will UD Almería win on 2026-06-09? Jun 14 $2 +$3 +150%
Kyrgyz Republic vs. Palestine: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $3 +$2 +79%
Will White House post 140-159 posts from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 14 $2 +$6 +247%
Will Moldova win on 2026-06-09? Jun 14 $4 +$1 +27%
Will Hungary vs. Kazakhstan end in a draw? Jun 14 $3 +$1 +40%
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Los Angeles Angels vs Jun 14 $2 +$2 +100%
Will Donald Trump post 200+ Truth Social posts from June 2 to June 9, Jun 14 $2 +$2 +108%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-09? Jun 14 $3 +$1 +37%
Will Northampton Saints win? Jun 14 $2 +$1 +54%
Will the price of XRP be between $1.10 and $1.20 on June 9? Jun 14 $1 +$2 +195%
Will Bahrain vs. Syria end in a draw? Jun 14 $1 +$3 +304%
Will Kyrgyz Republic win on 2026-06-09? Jun 14 $2 +$1 +49%
Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase June 2-8? Jun 14 $1 +$3 +245%
Will Ritesh Tandon advance from the CA-17 primary? Jun 14 $1 +$3 +241%
Will Myanmar win on 2026-06-09? Jun 14 $2 +$1 +59%
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Kansas City Royals vs Jun 14 $1 +$6 +447%
Saudi Arabia vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $1 +$1 +108%
Will Saracens win? Jun 14 $1 +$1 +74%
Will Connor McDavid win the 2025–2026 NHL Hart Memorial Trophy? Jun 14 $2 $0 +24%
Will the price of XRP be between $1.00 and $1.10 on June 9? Jun 14 $1 +$2 +117%
Will Hurricanes win? Jun 14 $1 +$2 +113%
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Boston Red Sox vs. Ne Jun 14 $1 +$1 +100%
Will Palestine win on 2026-06-09? Jun 14 $1 +$1 +104%
Will ASM Clermont Auvergne win? Jun 14 $0 +$1 +258%
Will Harlequins win? Jun 14 $1 +$5 +852%
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Los Angeles Angels vs Jun 14 $1 +$3 +277%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 14 $0 +$2 +445%
Will the next Claude Opus 4.8 model added to the Arena Leaderboard deb Jun 14 $1 −$1 -78%
Will the price of Solana be above $70 on June 8? Jun 14 $1 +$1 +88%
Will Crusaders win? Jun 14 $1 +$1 +74%
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Tampa Bay Rays vs. Mi Jun 14 $1 −$1 -93%
Will Oracle 2026 capital expenditures be above $50B? Jun 14 $1 $0 +52%
Will the price of XRP be between $1.20 and $1.30 on June 8? Jun 14 $0 +$5 +1663%
Will White House post 180-199 posts from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 14 $0 $0 -318%
Will the Senate pass a reconciliation bill by June 5? Jun 14 $1 +$1 +80%
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Kansas City Royals vs Jun 14 $1 +$1 +248%
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Milwaukee Brewers vs. Jun 14 $0 $0 +92%
Will Bristol Bears win? Jun 14 $0 +$1 +322%
Will Union Bordeaux Begles win? Jun 14 $0 $0 +295%
Will the Citizens' Coalition (MED) win the third most seats in the 202 Jun 14 $1 $0 +27%
Will Brandon Aiyuk play for Detroit Lions in 2026-27? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -95%
Will Kamala Harris be the 2028 Democratic Vice-Presidential nominee? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -42%
Will Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2027 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $7 +$1 +9%
Will Sabrina Carpenter attend any game at the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $5 +$1 +30%
Will Kiki Rice win the 2026 WNBA Rookie of the Year award? Jun 14 $0 $0 -13%
Will Lauren Betts win the 2026 WNBA Rookie of the Year award? Jun 14 $0 $0 -85%
Will LeBron James play for the San Antonio Spurs in 2026-27? Jun 14 $0 +$1 +240%
Will Alexandru Nazare be the next Prime Minister of Romania? Jun 14 $19 −$2 -10%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 46% +$261
sports 25% +$77
politics 17% +$34
world 4% +$24
culture 4% −$1
tech 3% −$2
economics 1% +$10
finance 0% −$1
crypto 0% +$1
weather 0% +$12
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will June 2026 be the 3rd hottest on record? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 4m
Will Pete Buttigieg be the 2028 Democratic Vice-Presidential nominee? SELL Yes 4¢ $0 15m
Will Seattle Sounders FC win on 2026-04-12? BUY Yes 17¢ $2 15m
Will Giannis Antetokounmpo play for the Boston Celtics in 2026-27? SELL Yes 33¢ $2 18m
Will MegaETH perform an airdrop by June 30? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 23m
Will Giannis Antetokounmpo play for the Boston Celtics in 2026-27? BUY Yes 34¢ $2 23m
Will Giannis Antetokounmpo play for the Boston Celtics in 2026-27? BUY Yes 34¢ $2 23m
Will the Citizens' Coalition (MED) win the third most seats in the 202 SELL Yes 1¢ $0 24m
Will the Citizens' Coalition (MED) win the third most seats in the 202 SELL Yes 1¢ $0 24m
Will the Citizens' Coalition (MED) win the third most seats in the 202 SELL Yes 1¢ $0 24m
Will Steve Witkoff attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? BUY Yes 44¢ $3 26m
Will the Democratic Party win the ND-AL House seat? BUY Yes 5¢ $0 30m
Will Houston Dynamo win on 2026-03-07? BUY Yes 10¢ $0 32m
Will New England Revolution vs. Houston Dynamo end in a draw? SELL No 75¢ $1 32m
Will Deep Fission's market cap be less than $1.25B at market close on BUY Yes 60¢ $4 36m
Will MOUZ qualify to the IEM Cologne 2026 playoffs? BUY No 65¢ $5 41m
Will Zohran Mamdani be the 2028 Democratic Vice-Presidential nominee? BUY Yes 9¢ $1 47m
Will LeBron James play for the Washington Wizards in 2026-27? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 52m
Will a player representing Mexico be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FI SELL Yes 1¢ $0 1h
Will Dallas Cowboys win the 2026 NFC East? BUY Yes 8¢ $1 1h
Will Dallas Cowboys win the 2026 NFC East? BUY Yes 9¢ $1 1h
Will Dallas Cowboys win the 2026 NFC East? SELL Yes 32¢ $3 1h
Will SC Recife vs. AC Goianiense end in a draw? SELL Yes 25¢ $3 1h
Will ACT New Zealand win the second-most seats in the New Zealand Hous BUY Yes 10¢ $1 1h
Will Brandon Aiyuk play for Detroit Lions in 2026-27? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 1h
Will any xAI Grok model score at least 30% on the FrontierMath Exam? BUY Yes 23¢ $0 1h
Will June 2026 be the 3rd hottest on record? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 1h
Over $250k committed to the ALIGN public sale? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 1h
Over $250k committed to the ALIGN public sale? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 1h
Will Marco Pašalić win the 2026 MLS Golden Boot? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)+22.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 287 +35.3% +22.4% 41% 36% +2.0%
≤30d 287 +35.3% +22.4% 41% 36% +2.0%
≤90d 287 +35.3% +22.4% 41% 36% +2.0%
all 287 +35.3% +22.4% 41% 36% +2.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover576.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +22.4% 36% +2.0%
10% ← realistic here +10.7% 33% -7.7%
15% -0.0% 30% -16.7%
20% -9.8% 25% -24.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,262.39 · official $1,284.76 · 3500 history records