Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T03:05:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
04 0x0446…a382 other 29 markets active 2h ago coverage 317d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$20 (+4%) realized +$20 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR7%break-even
Win rate34%10W / 19L
Drawdown8%max
Avg bet$18per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 37% +$11
world 18% −$2
politics 14% $0
culture 10% +$11
sports 10% $0
tech 7% $0
crypto 2% $0
finance 1% $0
economics 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +7%
net ROI/market (all)-8.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +0.0% -9.5% 0% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 2 -7.6% -16.4% 0% 0% -11.2%
≤90d 2 -7.6% -16.4% 0% 0% -11.2%
all 29 +1.2% -8.4% 34% 7% -6.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.4% 7% -6.0%
10% -17.2% 7% -15.0%
15% -25.2% 0% -23.2%
20% -32.5% 0% -30.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 47% · top 2 87% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% too few recent
Fragile wins
80% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late +3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$0 · ×7.07 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×10.11 per $1 lost it wins $10.11
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

317d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$20
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)34%
Wins / losses10 / 19
Open positions0
Markets (closed)29 / 29
History coverage317d
Avg bet$18
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown8%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 29 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 23 $80 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by May 31? May 27 $11 −$2 -15%
Will Trump be impeached in 2025? Dec 19 $8 $0 +3%
Will Barcelona win on 2025-11-29? Dec 11 $29 +$9 +30%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Dec 04 $46 +$10 +22%
Will Crystal Palace win on 2025-11-30? Nov 22 $26 $0 +0%
Will Atletico Madrid win on 2025-11-29? Nov 22 $29 $0 +0%
Will Barcelona win the 2025–26 La Liga? Nov 21 $7 $0 +0%
Will Fulham win on 2025-11-22? Nov 17 $4 $0 +0%
TikTok sale announced by October 31? Oct 24 $30 $0 +0%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Oct 24 $30 $0 -0%
Will Franco Parisi win the Chilean presidential election? Oct 23 $50 $0 +0%
Will Charlie Kirk be the #1 searched person on Google this year? Oct 23 $5 $0 +0%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2025 World Series? Oct 05 $53 +$2 +4%
Will Elon Musk be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? Oct 01 $14 $0 +0%
Will the New York Mets win the 2025 World Series? Oct 01 $7 $0 +5%
Will Ethereum dip to $2400 in August? Sep 02 $2 $0 -17%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2025 World Series? Aug 20 $7 $0 -0%
Will Andrew Cuomo win second place in the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Aug 17 $7 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $2800 in August? Aug 17 $7 $0 +0%
Will the Green Bay Packers win Super Bowl 2026? Aug 17 $7 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump win Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Aug 16 $7 $0 +2%
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.7% in 2025? Aug 14 $7 $0 +3%
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by August 31? Aug 13 $7 $0 +0%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2025 National League Championship? Aug 12 $7 $0 -0%
Will Eintracht Frankfurt win the 2025–26 Champions League? Aug 12 $7 $0 -0%
Will Trump meet with Vladimir Putin in August? Aug 12 $7 $0 -1%
Will the San Francisco 49ers win Super Bowl 2026? Aug 11 $7 $0 +0%
Will inflation reach more than 10% in 2025? Aug 11 $7 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 52¢ $36 1h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 52¢ $44 1h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 52¢ $80 3h
Iran leadership change by May 31? SELL Yes $0 26d
Iran leadership change by May 31? SELL Yes $1 30d
Iran leadership change by May 31? SELL Yes $3 30d
Iran leadership change by May 31? SELL Yes $2 30d
Iran leadership change by May 31? SELL Yes $3 30d
Iran leadership change by May 31? BUY Yes $11 30d
Will Trump be impeached in 2025? SELL No 100¢ $8 185d
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2025 Drivers Champion? SELL No 94¢ $33 200d
Will Barcelona win on 2025-11-29? BUY Yes 77¢ $24 212d
Will Barcelona win on 2025-11-29? BUY Yes 77¢ $5 212d
Will Crystal Palace win on 2025-11-30? SELL Yes 39¢ $26 212d
Will Crystal Palace win on 2025-11-30? BUY Yes 39¢ $26 212d
Will Atletico Madrid win on 2025-11-29? SELL Yes 79¢ $0 213d
Will Atletico Madrid win on 2025-11-29? SELL Yes 79¢ $6 213d
Will Atletico Madrid win on 2025-11-29? SELL Yes 79¢ $23 213d
Will Barcelona win the 2025–26 La Liga? SELL Yes 31¢ $3 213d
Will Barcelona win the 2025–26 La Liga? BUY Yes 31¢ $0 217d
Will Barcelona win the 2025–26 La Liga? BUY Yes 31¢ $3 217d
Will Barcelona win the 2025–26 La Liga? SELL Yes 31¢ $3 217d
Will Barcelona win the 2025–26 La Liga? BUY Yes 31¢ $3 217d
Will Fulham win on 2025-11-22? SELL Yes 45¢ $4 217d
Will Fulham win on 2025-11-22? BUY Yes 45¢ $4 217d
Will Atletico Madrid win on 2025-11-29? BUY Yes 79¢ $29 217d
TikTok sale announced by October 31? SELL No 96¢ $30 241d
TikTok sale announced by October 31? BUY No 96¢ $30 241d
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 98¢ $30 242d
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 98¢ $30 242d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 89 history records