Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T20:20:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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04 0x0447…d546 crypto 1719 markets active 0h ago coverage 38d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 37d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$4,337 (-5%) realized −$4,302 · open −$35
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -15% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -35% what you keep after slip
Net edge-35%after slip
Net WR20%break-even
Win rate76%1459W / 470L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$54per market
Trades / day48.3pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$165now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 38d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 99% −$4,508
sports 1% +$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +20%
net ROI/market (all)-23.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 501 -45.5% -50.7% 48% 13% -50.1%
≤30d 1471 -18.4% -26.2% 72% 21% -22.7%
≤90d 1929 -15.0% -23.1% 76% 20% -19.8%
all 1929 -15.0% -23.1% 76% 20% -19.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover48.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -23.1% 20% -19.8%
10% ← realistic here -30.5% 10% -27.5%
15% -37.2% 5% -34.5%
20% -43.3% 3% -40.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -11% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
73% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -15% · $-wt -11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -28% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$41 · ×0.13 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.41 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

38d coverage
Net worth$165
Realized−$4,302
Unrealized−$35
Win rate (resolved)76%
Wins / losses1459 / 470
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions2
Markets (closed)1929 / 1719
History coverage38d ⚠
Avg bet$54
Trades / day48.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 1929 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: West Indies vs Scotland West Indies 69¢ 91¢ $100 $132 +$32 (+32%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Up 79¢ 26¢ $100 $33 −$67 (-67%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 436 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - April 2, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 18 $97 −$97 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 10, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 18 $50 −$50 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 3, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 18 $20 −$20 -100%
Solana Up or Down - March 23, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 18 $99 −$99 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 6, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 18 $49 −$49 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 18, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - April 30, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 18 $50 −$50 -100%
Solana Up or Down - April 10, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 30, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Jun 18 $49 −$49 -100%
Solana Up or Down - April 1, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 18 $19 −$19 -100%
XRP Up or Down - April 19, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 20, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 3, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jun 18 $20 −$20 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 3, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Solana Up or Down - April 27, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 18 $10 −$10 -100%
XRP Up or Down - April 27, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 18 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 19, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 18 $10 −$10 -100%
XRP Up or Down - April 1, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 18 $48 −$48 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 18 $48 −$48 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 28, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 18 $49 −$49 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 18 $47 −$47 -100%
XRP Up or Down - March 20, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 30, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 18 $20 −$20 -100%
Solana Up or Down - April 24, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 18 $48 −$48 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 1, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 18 $99 −$99 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 18 $20 −$20 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 6, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 18 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 18 $49 −$49 -100%
XRP Up or Down - April 1, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - April 29, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 18 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 18 $28 −$28 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 8, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 1, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 18 $50 −$50 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 5, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 18 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 18 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 18 $48 −$48 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 18 $100 −$100 -100%
Solana Up or Down - April 29, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 18 $35 −$35 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 18 $19 −$19 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 18 $49 −$49 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 19, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 18 $99 −$99 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET BUY Up 79¢ $101 0m
Solana Up or Down - June 18, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET BUY Up 74¢ $51 5m
XRP Up or Down - June 18, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $50 10m
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $50 25m
XRP Up or Down - June 18, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Up 73¢ $102 30m
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $20 46m
Solana Up or Down - June 18, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET BUY Down 71¢ $102 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET BUY Up 71¢ $102 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $100 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $101 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $100 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $100 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET BUY Up 83¢ $101 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 18, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $100 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET BUY Up 77¢ $102 2h
Solana Up or Down - June 18, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $95 2h
Solana Up or Down - June 18, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Down 88¢ $101 2h
Solana Up or Down - June 18, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET BUY Up 86¢ $101 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $51 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $50 2h
Solana Up or Down - June 18, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $50 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $50 2h
XRP Up or Down - June 18, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $52 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $100 3h
XRP Up or Down - June 18, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $50 3h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: West Indies vs Scotland BUY West Indies 69¢ $101 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET BUY Down 84¢ $51 3h
Solana Up or Down - June 18, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET BUY Up 86¢ $29 3h
Solana Up or Down - June 18, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $6 3h
XRP Up or Down - June 18, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $50 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $165.46 · official $147.83 · 3500 history records