Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T06:00:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
04 0x0448…6ceb other 30 markets active 1h ago coverage 3d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable Fading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 3d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$407 (+21%) realized +$407 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR28%break-even
Win rate31%9W / 20L
Drawdown50%max
Avg bet$64per market
Trades / day13.6pace
Fees−$12est.
Kalshi-fit37%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 68% −$92
sports 31% +$423
crypto 1% +$16
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +28%
net ROI/market (all)-20.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 29 -12.5% -20.9% 31% 28% +7.0%
≤30d 29 -12.5% -20.9% 31% 28% +7.0%
≤90d 29 -12.5% -20.9% 31% 28% +7.0%
all 29 -12.5% -20.9% 31% 28% +7.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover13.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -20.9% 28% +7.0%
10% -28.4% 28% -3.3%
15% -35.3% 28% -12.6%
20% -41.7% 17% -21.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 37% · top 2 57% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +18% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -13% · $-wt +18% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +7% → late -31% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$111 vs −$33 · ×3.4 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.53 per $1 lost it wins $1.53
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$407
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)31%
Wins / losses9 / 20
Est. fees paid−$12
Open positions0
Markets (closed)29 / 30
History coverage3d
Avg bet$64
Trades / day13.6
Drawdown50%
Kalshi-fit37%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 29 Trades
no open positions (15 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Jordan 1 - 3 Algeria? Jun 23 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: Jordan 1 - 1 Algeria? Jun 23 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 23 $31 −$30 -98%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $401 +$35 +9%
Exact Score: Norway 3 - 3 Senegal? Jun 23 $21 −$12 -59%
Exact Score: Norway 3 - 1 Senegal? Jun 23 $20 −$20 -98%
Exact Score: Norway 2 - 2 Senegal? Jun 23 $21 −$20 -97%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 23 $31 −$30 -98%
Exact Score: Norway 2 - 0 Senegal? Jun 23 $51 −$50 -98%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Austria? Jun 22 $31 +$169 +550%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $101 +$46 +46%
Exact Score: France 1 - 0 Iraq? Jun 22 $21 −$20 -97%
Exact Score: France 2 - 0 Iraq? Jun 22 $31 −$30 -98%
Argentina to score first vs. Austria? Jun 22 $50 −$6 -13%
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 1 Austria? Jun 22 $15 −$15 -98%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 1 Austria? Jun 22 $31 −$30 -97%
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? Jun 22 $51 −$50 -98%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 2 Austria? Jun 22 $51 −$50 -97%
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 22 $31 −$31 -100%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $101 −$57 -57%
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Jun 21 $51 +$199 +388%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 21 $51 +$39 +76%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $101 −$100 -99%
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? Jun 21 $51 −$50 -97%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $101 +$46 +46%
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 21 $254 +$373 +147%
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? Jun 21 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? AND Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20 Jun 21 $10 +$16 +154%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $152 +$76 +50%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Jordan 1 - 3 Algeria? BUY Yes 25¢ $10 1h
Exact Score: Jordan 1 - 1 Algeria? BUY Yes 27¢ $20 1h
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 33¢ $31 1h
Exact Score: Norway 3 - 3 Senegal? SELL Yes $9 4h
Exact Score: Norway 3 - 3 Senegal? BUY Yes $21 4h
Exact Score: Norway 3 - 1 Senegal? BUY Yes 31¢ $20 4h
Exact Score: Norway 2 - 2 Senegal? BUY Yes $21 4h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 20¢ $31 4h
Exact Score: Norway 2 - 0 Senegal? BUY Yes 23¢ $51 4h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 92¢ $301 4h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 91¢ $100 4h
Exact Score: France 1 - 0 Iraq? BUY Yes $21 12h
Exact Score: France 2 - 0 Iraq? BUY Yes 14¢ $31 12h
Argentina to score first vs. Austria? SELL Yes 70¢ $44 12h
Argentina to score first vs. Austria? BUY Yes 79¢ $50 12h
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 1 Austria? BUY Yes 13¢ $15 12h
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Austria? BUY Yes 15¢ $31 13h
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 1 Austria? BUY Yes 11¢ $31 13h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 68¢ $101 14h
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $51 16h
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 2 Austria? BUY Yes $51 16h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 26¢ $44 28h
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $31 28h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 58¢ $101 28h
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $51 39h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 69¢ $101 39h
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 56¢ $51 41h
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? BUY Yes $51 41h
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 45¢ $152 2d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 68¢ $101 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 47 history records