Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T19:07:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
04 0x0449…29ff other 11 markets active 3h ago coverage 12d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$3 (-0%) realized −$3 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -27% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -34% what you keep after slip
Net edge-34%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate9%1W / 10L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$346per market
Trades / day1.7pace
Kalshi-fit18%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$1
14 days−$3
30 days−$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 88% −$3
crypto 12% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-34.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -37.5% -43.5% 12% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 11 -27.3% -34.3% 9% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 11 -27.3% -34.3% 9% 0% -9.6%
all 11 -27.3% -34.3% 9% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -34.3% 0% -9.6%
10% -40.5% 0% -18.2%
15% -46.3% 0% -26.1%
20% -51.6% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -27% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.23 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.12 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

12d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$3
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)9%
Wins / losses1 / 10
Open positions0
Markets (closed)11 / 11
History coverage12d
Avg bet$346
Trades / day1.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit18%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 11 Trades
no open positions (2 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 24, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 24 $0 $0 -100%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 24, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 24 $0 $0 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 24, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 24 $0 $0 -100%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 24 $361 $0 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 23 $481 −$1 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 20? Jun 20 $464 $0 +0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $292 $0 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $320 $0 -0%
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $973 −$1 -0%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $432 −$1 -0%
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $485 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 30 history records