Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T07:33:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

04
0x044f…d1f1
weather · 551 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
+$11,300 +32%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$686 · open −$572
avoidriskycopy
~ RISKY weather specialist⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$16,386
Realized−$686
Unrealized−$572
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses199 / 165
Open positions198
Markets (closed)364 / 551
History coverage6d
Avg bet$65
Trades / day550.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 198 History 364 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$319
7 days−$686
14 days−$686
30 days−$686
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israel x Hezbollah diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? No 95¢ 94¢ $1,537 $1,526 −$11 (-1%)
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? No 78¢ 74¢ $1,165 $1,118 −$47 (-4%)
Israeli forces enter Beirut by June 30? No 95¢ 98¢ $950 $984 +$34 (+4%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 14? No 56¢ 98¢ $357 $626 +$269 (+75%)
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 17°C on June 14? No 76¢ 85¢ $362 $405 +$43 (+12%)
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 32°C on June 14? No 72¢ 81¢ $357 $402 +$45 (+13%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? No 55¢ 48¢ $440 $388 −$52 (-12%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? No 83¢ 75¢ $417 $376 −$40 (-10%)
Adam Back confirmed to be Satoshi by December 31? No 94¢ 94¢ $358 $357 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 90-91°F on June 14? No 75¢ 84¢ $320 $357 +$37 (+12%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 14? No 62¢ 66¢ $328 $351 +$23 (+7%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 15? No 72¢ 92¢ $248 $318 +$71 (+28%)
EU dissolves before 2027? No 97¢ 97¢ $318 $318 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 34°C on June 15? No 81¢ 80¢ $321 $317 −$3 (-1%)
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? No 98¢ 99¢ $296 $297 +$2 (+1%)
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? No 85¢ 95¢ $255 $286 +$31 (+12%)
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? No 90¢ 95¢ $270 $284 +$14 (+5%)
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? No 90¢ 94¢ $270 $280 +$10 (+4%)
Will Iran recognize Israel by December 31? No 91¢ 92¢ $273 $274 +$2 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 92-93°F on June 14? No 78¢ 59¢ $338 $255 −$83 (-25%)
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 16°C on June 14? No 61¢ 56¢ $273 $253 −$20 (-7%)
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 24°C on June 14? No 67¢ 73¢ $206 $225 +$19 (+9%)
Will Venezuela become 51st state? No 95¢ 97¢ $174 $176 +$2 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 30°C on June 14? Yes 20¢ 35¢ $99 $174 +$76 (+77%)
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 31°C or below on June 15? Yes 50¢ 56¢ $155 $173 +$18 (+12%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 34°C on June 14? Jun 14 $294 +$101 +34%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 27°C on June 14? Jun 14 $15 +$8 +51%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 31°C on June 14? Jun 14 $10 +$4 +37%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 78-79°F on June 13? Jun 14 $44 +$147 +332%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 92-93°F on June 13? Jun 14 $149 +$63 +42%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 72-73°F on Ju Jun 14 $36 +$6 +17%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 29°C on June 14? Jun 14 $9 +$5 +58%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 82-83°F on June 13? Jun 14 $96 +$25 +26%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 80-81°F on June 13? Jun 13 $229 +$107 +47%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 25°C on June 13? Jun 13 $17 +$91 +539%
Will the lowest temperature in London be 12°C on June 13? Jun 13 $5 +$1 +20%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on June Jun 13 $53 +$80 +151%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 76-77°F on June Jun 13 $5 +$1 +19%
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 15°C on June 13? Jun 13 $2 +$5 +212%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 78-79°F on June 13? Jun 13 $169 +$45 +27%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 86-87°F on Ju Jun 13 $34 +$9 +28%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 26°C on June 13? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 20°C on June 13? Jun 13 $7 −$7 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 32°C on June 13? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on June 13? Jun 13 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 13? Jun 13 $13 −$13 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 34°C on June 13? Jun 13 $15 −$15 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 31°C on June 13? Jun 13 $25 −$25 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on June 13? Jun 13 $11 −$11 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 13? Jun 13 $41 −$41 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C or below on June 13? Jun 13 $262 −$262 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 24°C on June 13? Jun 13 $4 +$3 +69%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 23°C on June 13? Jun 13 $51 +$15 +30%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 27°C on June 13? Jun 13 $11 +$101 +902%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 32°C on June 13? Jun 13 $257 +$131 +51%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 21°C on June 13? Jun 13 $48 +$14 +30%
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 13? Jun 13 $231 +$74 +32%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 31°C on June 13? Jun 13 $16 +$27 +165%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 21°C on June 13? Jun 13 $59 +$34 +59%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 14°C on June 13? Jun 13 $72 +$48 +67%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 30°C on June 13? Jun 13 $8 +$5 +61%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 33°C on June 13? Jun 13 $8 +$2 +20%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 18°C on June 13? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 13? Jun 13 $19 −$19 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on June 13? Jun 13 $21 −$21 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on Jun Jun 13 $51 +$69 +136%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 18°C on June 12? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 29°C on June 12? Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 35°C on June 12? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 17°C on June 12? Jun 13 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 31°C on June 12? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on Jun Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 28°C on June 12? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in London be 14°C on June 12? Jun 13 $1 +$2 +186%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 17°C on June 12? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
weather 83% −$1,203
world 8% −$151
other 8% +$96
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 34°C on June 14? SELL No 100¢ $395 3m
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 31°C on June 15? BUY No 58¢ $29 12m
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 39°C on June 16? BUY No 72¢ $4 16m
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 29°C on June 15? BUY No 70¢ $26 19m
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 31°C on June 15? BUY No 57¢ $10 21m
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 84-85°F on June 15? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 29m
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 27°C on June 14? SELL No 100¢ $23 33m
Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on June 16? BUY No 81¢ $37 35m
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on June BUY Yes 43¢ $16 35m
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 14? SELL No 100¢ $141 36m
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 16? BUY No 64¢ $14 41m
Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on June 16? BUY No 81¢ $49 41m
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 84-85°F on June 15? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 45m
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 19°C on June 16? BUY Yes 19¢ $2 45m
Will the lowest temperature in London be 14°C on June 16? BUY Yes 8¢ $1 47m
Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on June 16? BUY No 80¢ $42 51m
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 31°C on June 15? BUY No 57¢ $12 52m
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 39°C on June 15? BUY Yes 15¢ $2 53m
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 84-85°F on June 15? BUY Yes 10¢ $11 54m
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 31°C on June 15? BUY Yes 5¢ $15 58m
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on June BUY Yes 42¢ $19 59m
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 27°C on June 15? BUY No 61¢ $24 1h
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 21°C on June 15? BUY No 73¢ $36 1h
Will the lowest temperature in London be 16°C on June 16? BUY No 62¢ $20 1h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on Ju BUY No 58¢ $3 1h
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 78-79°F on June 15? BUY No 72¢ $51 1h
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 21°C on June 15? BUY No 73¢ $15 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 16? BUY No 63¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 16? BUY No 63¢ $2 1h
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 20°C on June 15? BUY No 82¢ $49 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +55%
net ROI/market (all)+16.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 364 +28.2% +16.0% 55% 55% -12.6%
≤30d 364 +28.2% +16.0% 55% 55% -12.6%
≤90d 364 +28.2% +16.0% 55% 55% -12.6%
all 364 +28.2% +16.0% 55% 55% -12.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover550.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +16.0% 55% -12.6%
10% ← realistic here +4.9% 49% -21.0%
15% -5.3% 40% -28.6%
20% -14.6% 31% -35.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $16,386.41 · official $16,380.91 (match) · 3500 history records