Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T21:50:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
04 0x044f…0ad2 other 15 markets active 3h ago coverage 588d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$1,201 (-7%) realized −$1,201 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR27%break-even
Win rate40%6W / 9L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,223per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$15est.
Kalshi-fit53%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$147
7 days−$368
14 days−$368
30 days−$368
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 72% −$81
other 12% −$347
sports 10% −$842
world 5% +$36
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +27%
net ROI/market (all)-6.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 +11.1% +0.6% 50% 33% -17.2%
≤30d 12 +11.1% +0.6% 50% 33% -17.2%
≤90d 12 +11.1% +0.6% 50% 33% -17.2%
all 15 +3.3% -6.5% 40% 27% -15.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.5% 27% -15.5%
10% -15.5% 27% -23.6%
15% -23.6% 27% -31.0%
20% -31.1% 20% -37.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 47% · top 2 70% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -9% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
33% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +33% → late -22% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$172 vs −$252 · ×0.68 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.46 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

588d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$1,201
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses6 / 9
Est. fees paid−$15
Open positions0
Markets (closed)15 / 15
History coverage588d
Avg bet$1,223
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit53%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 15 Trades
no open positions (3 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $303 −$53 -17%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $103 +$240 +233%
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 1 DR Congo? Jun 17 $103 −$21 -20%
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 DR Congo? Jun 17 $102 −$20 -19%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 14 $10 −$8 -80%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $304 −$300 -99%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 14 $1,000 +$36 +4%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $1,005 −$1,000 -100%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $102 +$111 +109%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $306 +$484 +158%
Spread: South Africa (-1.5) Jun 11 $500 +$11 +2%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $348 +$151 +43%
AFC U23 Final: China vs. Japan Jan 24 $1,000 −$785 -78%
Will Donald Trump be inaugurated? Jan 24 $12,055 −$23 -0%
Will a Democrat win Arizona US Senate Election? Nov 07 $1,100 −$58 -5%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 55¢ $250 3h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 65¢ $303 3h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? SELL Yes 28¢ $342 3h
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 1 DR Congo? SELL Yes $77 4h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes $92 4h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes $10 4h
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 1 DR Congo? BUY Yes 11¢ $103 4h
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 DR Congo? SELL Yes 17¢ $83 4h
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 DR Congo? BUY Yes 20¢ $102 4h
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? SELL Yes $2 3d
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes $10 3d
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 56¢ $304 3d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $1,036 3d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 85¢ $1,000 3d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 82¢ $1,005 4d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 47¢ $102 5d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 100¢ $499 5d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 38¢ $306 5d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 69¢ $348 6d
Spread: South Africa (-1.5) BUY Mexico 98¢ $500 6d
AFC U23 Final: China vs. Japan SELL China $215 144d
AFC U23 Final: China vs. Japan BUY China 27¢ $1,000 144d
Will Donald Trump be inaugurated? SELL Yes 96¢ $997 587d
Will Donald Trump be inaugurated? BUY Yes 96¢ $1,000 587d
Will Donald Trump be inaugurated? SELL Yes 96¢ $999 587d
Will Donald Trump be inaugurated? BUY Yes 96¢ $1,000 587d
Will Donald Trump be inaugurated? SELL Yes 96¢ $997 587d
Will Donald Trump be inaugurated? BUY Yes 96¢ $1,000 587d
Will Donald Trump be inaugurated? SELL Yes 96¢ $30 587d
Will Donald Trump be inaugurated? SELL Yes 96¢ $21 587d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 57 history records