Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T15:54:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
04 0x0452…843c sports 9 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ bot/MM pace (55 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$26 (+4%) realized +$26 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR22%break-even
Win rate78%7W / 2L
Drawdown92%max
Avg bet$76per market
Trades / day55.0pace
Fees−$9est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% +$32
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +22%
net ROI/market (all)-10.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -1.0% -10.5% 78% 22% -5.3%
≤30d 9 -1.0% -10.5% 78% 22% -5.3%
≤90d 9 -1.0% -10.5% 78% 22% -5.3%
all 9 -1.0% -10.5% 78% 22% -5.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover55.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.5% 22% -5.3%
10% ← realistic here -19.0% 11% -14.4%
15% -26.9% 0% -22.6%
20% -34.0% 0% -30.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 69% · top 2 82% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
71% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +5% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
3.7 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$15 · ×0.59 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×2.08 per $1 lost it wins $2.08
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$26
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)78%
Wins / losses7 / 2
Est. fees paid−$9
Open positions0
Markets (closed)9 / 9
History coverage1d
Avg bet$76
Trades / day55.0
Drawdown92%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 9 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 16 $159 +$43 +27%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs Leviatán Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 16 $41 −$2 -4%
Dota 2: 4ikibamboni vs Spirit Academy - Game 2 Winner Jun 16 $42 −$28 -67%
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 16 $162 +$2 +1%
Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Team Resilience - Game 2 Winner Jun 16 $108 +$4 +3%
Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Team Resilience (BO3) - The International Chin Jun 16 $19 +$1 +4%
Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Team Resilience - Game 1 Winner Jun 16 $107 +$8 +8%
Dota 2: Hokori vs Team Nemesis - Game 2 Winner Jun 16 $25 +$3 +12%
Dota 2: Hokori vs Team Nemesis (BO3) - The International South America Jun 16 $25 +$2 +6%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming - Game 2 Winner SELL Yakult Brothers 100¢ $82 18m
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming - Game 2 Winner BUY Yakult Brothers 50¢ $42 52m
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming - Game 2 Winner SELL Yakult Brothers 39¢ $41 53m
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming - Game 2 Winner BUY Yakult Brothers 39¢ $43 57m
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming - Game 2 Winner SELL Vici Gaming 77¢ $40 1h
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming - Game 2 Winner BUY Vici Gaming 71¢ $38 1h
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming - Game 2 Winner SELL Yakult Brothers 37¢ $38 1h
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming - Game 2 Winner BUY Yakult Brothers 35¢ $37 1h
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs Leviatán Esports - Map 2 Winner SELL Leviatán Esports 63¢ $39 1h
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs Leviatán Esports - Map 2 Winner BUY Leviatán Esports 64¢ $41 1h
Dota 2: 4ikibamboni vs Spirit Academy - Game 2 Winner SELL Spirit Academy 28¢ $6 1h
Dota 2: 4ikibamboni vs Spirit Academy - Game 2 Winner SELL Spirit Academy 28¢ $8 1h
Dota 2: 4ikibamboni vs Spirit Academy - Game 2 Winner BUY Spirit Academy 87¢ $26 1h
Dota 2: 4ikibamboni vs Spirit Academy - Game 2 Winner BUY Spirit Academy 79¢ $16 1h
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming - Game 1 Winner SELL Vici Gaming 41¢ $4 1h
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming - Game 1 Winner SELL Vici Gaming 41¢ $7 1h
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming - Game 1 Winner BUY Vici Gaming 51¢ $1 1h
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming - Game 1 Winner BUY Vici Gaming 51¢ $2 1h
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming - Game 1 Winner BUY Vici Gaming 51¢ $8 1h
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming - Game 1 Winner BUY Vici Gaming 51¢ $3 1h
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming - Game 1 Winner SELL Yakult Brothers 79¢ $10 1h
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming - Game 1 Winner SELL Yakult Brothers 79¢ $12 1h
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming - Game 1 Winner SELL Yakult Brothers 81¢ $10 1h
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming - Game 1 Winner BUY Yakult Brothers 74¢ $30 2h
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming - Game 1 Winner SELL Vici Gaming 75¢ $30 2h
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming - Game 1 Winner BUY Vici Gaming 68¢ $27 2h
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming - Game 1 Winner SELL Vici Gaming 56¢ $3 2h
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming - Game 1 Winner BUY Vici Gaming 33¢ $2 2h
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming - Game 1 Winner SELL Yakult Brothers 92¢ $66 2h
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming - Game 1 Winner BUY Yakult Brothers 92¢ $59 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 57 history records