Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T04:35:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
04 0x0454…30ec other 78 markets active 2h ago coverage 401d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$11 (-0%) realized −$11 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate5%4W / 73L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$83per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$69now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 41% −$4
politics 33% −$3
sports 15% −$2
economics 5% −$1
culture 2% $0
world 2% $0
crypto 1% −$1
tech 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-14.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -0.3% -9.8% 0% 0% -9.8%
≤30d 1 -0.3% -9.8% 0% 0% -9.8%
≤90d 3 -3.8% -12.9% 33% 0% -9.8%
all 77 -4.9% -14.0% 5% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.0% 0% -9.7%
10% -22.2% 0% -18.3%
15% -29.7% 0% -26.2%
20% -36.6% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 77% · top 2 85% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.27 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.07 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

401d coverage
Net worth$69
Realized−$11
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)5%
Wins / losses4 / 73
Open positions1
Markets (closed)77 / 78
History coverage401d
Avg bet$83
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 77 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? No 99¢ 99¢ $70 $69 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 20 $69 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? May 22 $69 $0 +0%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 15 $2 $0 -11%
Will Trump nominate Christopher Waller as the next Fed chair? Mar 01 $70 $0 -0%
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 31 $137 $0 -0%
Will Jordan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jan 26 $71 $0 -0%
Will West Ham win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Jan 24 $144 $0 -0%
Will Olympiakos win the 2025–26 Champions League? Jan 20 $70 $0 -0%
Will the Charlotte Hornets win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jan 15 $68 $0 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jan 10 $145 $0 -0%
Will the Utah Jazz win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jan 06 $116 $0 -0%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after January 2026 meeting? Jan 03 $71 $0 -0%
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jan 01 $68 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2025? Dec 29 $1 $0 -31%
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Dec 29 $144 $0 -0%
Will Eintracht Frankfurt win the 2025–26 Champions League? Dec 27 $1 $0 -50%
Will Union Saint-Gilloise win the 2025–26 Champions League? Dec 25 $1 $0 -50%
Will Ethereum hit $10,000 by December 31? Dec 25 $1 −$1 -67%
Will Trump nominate Lorie K. Logan as the next Fed chair? Dec 23 $1 $0 -50%
Will the Indiana Pacers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Dec 23 $70 $0 -0%
Will Trump release the Epstein files by December 19? Dec 21 $71 $0 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Dec 19 $3 $0 -13%
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Dec 19 $140 $0 -0%
Will Monaco win the 2025–26 Champions League? Dec 18 $69 $0 -0%
Will the Sacramento Kings win the 2026 NBA Finals? Dec 16 $71 $0 -0%
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Dec 10 $71 $0 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Dec 09 $71 $0 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Dec 07 $71 $0 -0%
Will Villarreal win the 2025–26 Champions League? Dec 02 $71 $0 -0%
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Nov 30 $147 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in November? Nov 28 $72 $0 +0%
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Nov 26 $72 $0 -0%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decemb Nov 24 $74 $0 -0%
Will PSV win the 2025–26 Champions League? Nov 22 $73 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Nov 20 $4 $0 -10%
Will the New York Giants win Super Bowl 2026? Nov 18 $75 −$1 -1%
Will the Cleveland Browns win Super Bowl 2026? Nov 17 $225 $0 -0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Nov 10 $148 $0 -0%
Will the Cincinnati Bengals win Super Bowl 2026? Nov 06 $74 $0 -0%
Will the Washington Wizards win the 2026 NBA Finals? Oct 29 $76 $0 -0%
Will Aston Villa win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Oct 23 $75 $0 -0%
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Oct 21 $150 $0 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Oct 19 $151 $0 -0%
Will the New York Jets win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 16 $3 $0 -13%
Will the Atlanta Falcons win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 10 $74 $0 +0%
Will Thunderbolts be the top grossing movie of 2025? Oct 04 $73 $0 -0%
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Oct 03 $75 $0 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Oct 01 $73 $0 -0%
Will the Tennessee Titans win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 27 $74 $0 -0%
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 26 $77 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $70 1h
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $68 5d
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $68 23d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $69 35d
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 42d
Will Trump nominate Christopher Waller as the next Fed chair? SELL No 100¢ $70 116d
Will Trump nominate Christopher Waller as the next Fed chair? BUY No 100¢ $70 138d
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $68 146d
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $69 149d
Will Jordan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $71 150d
Will Jordan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $71 152d
Will West Ham win the 2025–26 English Premier League? SELL No 100¢ $71 153d
Will West Ham win the 2025–26 English Premier League? BUY No 100¢ $71 155d
Will Olympiakos win the 2025–26 Champions League? SELL No 100¢ $70 156d
Will Olympiakos win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY No 100¢ $70 160d
Will the Charlotte Hornets win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 100¢ $68 161d
Will the Charlotte Hornets win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 100¢ $68 165d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 100¢ $71 166d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $71 169d
Will the Utah Jazz win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 100¢ $67 170d
Will the Utah Jazz win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 100¢ $67 172d
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after January 2026 meeting? SELL No 100¢ $71 174d
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after January 2026 meeting? BUY No 100¢ $71 175d
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $68 176d
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $68 178d
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2025? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 178d
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $69 178d
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 100¢ $69 180d
Will Eintracht Frankfurt win the 2025–26 Champions League? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 181d
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $69 181d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $69.47 · official $69.47 (match) · 325 history records