Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T14:09:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

04
0x0456…5c6a
sports · 337 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$93 -3%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$85 · open −$4
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP ⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$209
Realized−$85
Unrealized−$4
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses147 / 124
Est. fees paid−$24
Open positions66
Markets (closed)271 / 337
History coverage52d
Avg bet$9
Trades / day40.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit86%
Chart Positions 66 History 271 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$77
7 days−$229
14 days−$229
30 days−$229
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Brazil win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 73¢ 72¢ $76 $74 −$2 (-2%)
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? No 88¢ 90¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+3%)
Libema Open: Daria Snigur vs Robin Montgomery Robin Montgomery 45¢ 44¢ $8 $8 −$0 (-1%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Yes 40¢ 44¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+8%)
Ilkley: Viktorija Golubic vs Katie Swan Katie Swan 37¢ 67¢ $3 $5 +$2 (+81%)
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Yes 60¢ 60¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
HSBC Championships: Iva Jovic vs Amanda Anisimova Iva Jovic 43¢ 42¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-2%)
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? No 43¢ 40¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-6%)
Will Iran Play in the World Cup? Yes 94¢ 98¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+5%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026? Yes 44¢ 56¢ $3 $4 +$1 (+26%)
Ilkley: Darja Vidmanova vs Lucrezia Stefanini Darja Vidmanova 59¢ 69¢ $3 $4 +$1 (+18%)
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? No 71¢ 72¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+2%)
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? No 73¢ 72¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-1%)
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? Yes 12¢ 16¢ $2 $3 +$1 (+29%)
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 FUT Esports 49¢ 56¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+16%)
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? No 76¢ 57¢ $3 $2 −$1 (-24%)
Will Andy Burnham be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026? Yes 59¢ 64¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+10%)
Ilkley: Elizabeth Mandlik vs Dalma Galfi Dalma Galfi 72¢ 77¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+7%)
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? No 78¢ 81¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+4%)
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? No 81¢ 80¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Yes 75¢ 74¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 G2 44¢ 44¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-2%)
US strike on Cuba by December 31? No 61¢ 60¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-2%)
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? No 61¢ 97¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+59%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ilkley: Alicia Dudeney vs Ashlyn Krueger Jun 12 $1 $0 +9%
Modena: Dominika Salkova vs Katarzyna Kawa Jun 12 $104 −$55 -53%
Modena: Victoria Jimenez Kasintseva vs Leyre Romero Gormaz Jun 12 $4 −$1 -16%
Ilkley: Tatiana Prozorova vs Sinja Kraus Jun 12 $2 $0 -21%
Libema Open: Ajla Tomljanovic vs Dayana Yastremska Jun 12 $6 +$4 +69%
HSBC Championships: Marie Bouzkova vs Donna Vekic Jun 12 $54 −$6 -11%
HSBC Championships: Elena Rybakina vs Tatjana Maria Jun 12 $10 +$2 +24%
Libema Open: Barbora Krejcikova vs Gabriela Ruse Jun 12 $13 +$6 +46%
Libema Open: Caty McNally vs Solana Sierra Jun 12 $56 +$2 +3%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $198 +$20 +10%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $40 +$26 +65%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 12 $86 +$45 +52%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes Jun 12 $56 −$15 -27%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 12 $5 +$3 +57%
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 12 $35 −$17 -48%
Iran closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 12 $2 $0 +5%
Spread: Seattle Mariners (-1.5) Jun 12 $5 −$2 -49%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $43 −$6 -13%
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals Jun 11 $42 −$25 -59%
Will Rebecca Shepherd win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? Jun 11 $5 $0 +1%
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 11 $5 $0 +1%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $10 $0 +3%
Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? Jun 11 $41 −$6 -15%
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 10.5 Jun 11 $15 −$10 -66%
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 11 $5 +$1 +24%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. New York Mets Jun 11 $5 +$3 +67%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins Jun 11 $10 +$5 +47%
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) Jun 11 $30 −$30 -99%
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,600 in June? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -69%
Modena: Tamara Zidansek vs Nuria Brancaccio Jun 11 $5 +$2 +34%
Will PPI YoY be between 6.0% and 6.9% in May? Jun 11 $9 +$10 +115%
Will Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) hit (LOW) $232 in June? Jun 11 $1 $0 +21%
Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $48 −$2 -4%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $37 −$24 -65%
Houston Astros vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 11 $10 −$3 -30%
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 9.5 Jun 11 $5 +$4 +79%
Spread: Spurs (-12.5) Jun 11 $15 −$15 -99%
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals Jun 11 $20 −$20 -99%
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 11 $15 +$17 +109%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 11 $30 −$4 -12%
Spread: Spurs (-20.5) Jun 11 $5 −$5 -98%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. New York Mets Jun 11 $15 +$16 +106%
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5) Jun 11 $1 +$1 +109%
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 11 $2 +$2 +79%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics Jun 11 $5 $0 -9%
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 8.5 Jun 11 $1 +$1 +73%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of June? Jun 10 $1 $0 +0%
Ilkley: Darja Vidmanova vs Linda Fruhvirtova Jun 09 $19 −$1 -3%
Modena: Marina Bassols Ribera vs Darja Semenistaja Jun 09 $1 +$1 +76%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 09 $13 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 45% −$165
crypto 30% +$39
other 18% +$60
world 4% −$2
politics 2% −$15
finance 1% −$5
tech 0% $0
economics 0% $0
weather 0% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Golden State Valkyries vs. Seattle Storm BUY Golden State Valkyries 80¢ $1 19m
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 20m
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY G2 44¢ $1 20m
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY No 54¢ $1 20m
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY No 73¢ $1 21m
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY No 73¢ $1 21m
Spread: Spurs (-5.5) BUY Spurs 49¢ $1 21m
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 80¢ $1 22m
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 60¢ $1 22m
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights BUY Golden Knights 48¢ $1 23m
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY G2 45¢ $1 24m
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY FUT Esports 56¢ $1 25m
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY Team Falcons 68¢ $1 25m
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 60¢ $1 26m
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY No 73¢ $1 28m
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 17¢ $1 28m
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 60¢ $1 28m
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 62¢ $1 28m
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 60¢ $1 29m
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 30m
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 30m
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 60¢ $1 30m
Ilkley: Alicia Dudeney vs Ashlyn Krueger SELL Ashlyn Krueger 88¢ $1 30m
Canada vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Bosnia-Herzegovina O/U 3.5 Corners BUY Over 46¢ $1 31m
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 31m
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY FUT Esports 43¢ $1 34m
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $1 34m
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 44¢ $1 35m
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? BUY No 81¢ $1 35m
Spread: Knicks (-5.5) BUY Knicks 24¢ $1 35m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-13.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 189 -14.5% -22.6% 39% 28% -19.9%
≤30d 191 -14.3% -22.4% 39% 27% -19.9%
≤90d 271 -4.1% -13.3% 54% 38% -12.2%
all 271 -4.1% -13.3% 54% 38% -12.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover40.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -13.3% 38% -12.2%
10% ← realistic here -21.6% 27% -20.6%
15% -29.2% 20% -28.3%
20% -36.1% 17% -35.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $208.97 · official $209.08 (match) · 2283 history records