Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T06:19:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
04 0x0456…b296 sports 235 markets active 1h ago coverage 102d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$326 (+1%) realized +$245 · open +$81
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate90%211W / 23L
Whale WR100%big bets
Drawdown82%max
Avg bet$243per market
Trades / day5.1pace
Fees−$34est.
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$831now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$155
7 days+$155
14 days+$155
30 days−$30
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 69% +$245
other 19% +$130
weather 9% +$80
tech 3% −$91
finance 0% −$7
world 0% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-11.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 18 +3.6% -6.3% 83% 22% -5.6%
≤30d 24 -0.2% -9.7% 75% 25% -10.0%
≤90d 148 -3.2% -12.4% 86% 7% -9.5%
all 234 -1.7% -11.1% 90% 4% -9.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.1% 4% -9.1%
10% -19.6% 1% -17.8%
15% -27.4% 0% -25.7%
20% -34.5% 0% -33.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
95% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 100% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -2% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$37 · ×0.14 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.33 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

102d coverage
Net worth$831
Realized+$245
Unrealized+$81
Win rate (resolved)90%
Wins / losses211 / 23
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Est. fees paid−$34
Open positions1
Markets (closed)234 / 235
History coverage102d
Avg bet$243
Trades / day5.1
Drawdown82%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 234 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? Yes 88¢ 98¢ $750 $831 +$81 (+11%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $201 +$19 +10%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $201 +$19 +9%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 4.5 Jun 20 $402 +$35 +9%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $101 +$1 +1%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 5.5 Jun 20 $200 +$6 +3%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 4.5 Jun 19 $201 +$10 +5%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $151 +$24 +16%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $190 +$6 +3%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 3.5 Jun 18 $151 +$21 +14%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 4.5 Jun 18 $200 +$14 +7%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 4.5 Jun 18 $301 +$46 +15%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $201 −$10 -5%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $151 −$34 -22%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $190 +$22 +11%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $201 −$59 -29%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $201 +$14 +7%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $151 +$6 +4%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $201 +$15 +7%
Sweden vs. Greece: O/U 4.5 Jun 04 $201 +$10 +5%
Haiti vs. New Zealand: O/U 4.5 Jun 03 $301 +$38 +13%
Will Apple be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on Jun 03 $304 −$184 -61%
Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap Jun 02 $304 −$129 -42%
Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap May 31 $504 +$87 +17%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 26 $230 −$7 -3%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on April May 11 $300 +$11 +4%
Barcelona Open: Tomas Etcheverry vs Jack Draper Apr 13 $200 +$2 +1%
OGC Nice vs. Le Havre AC: O/U 4.5 Apr 12 $100 +$2 +2%
Will AZ win on 2026-04-12? Apr 12 $100 +$5 +5%
CA Paranaense vs. Associação Chapecoense de Futebol: O/U 3.5 Apr 12 $100 +$3 +3%
Will 1. FC Köln win on 2026-04-12? Apr 12 $250 $0 +0%
Crystal Palace FC vs. Newcastle United FC: O/U 3.5 Apr 12 $200 +$11 +6%
Parma Calcio 1913 vs. SSC Napoli: O/U 4.5 Apr 12 $100 +$1 +1%
Sønderjyske Fodbold vs. Viborg FF: O/U 3.5 Apr 12 $200 +$5 +2%
Barcelona Open, Qualification: Sebastian Ofner vs Patrick Kypson Apr 12 $200 +$4 +2%
Will Rangers FC win on 2026-04-12? Apr 12 $100 +$1 +1%
Genoa CFC vs. US Sassuolo Calcio: O/U 3.5 Apr 12 $250 +$22 +9%
Will Colorado Rapids SC win on 2026-04-11? Apr 12 $400 +$7 +2%
Toronto FC vs. FC Cincinnati: O/U 3.5 Apr 11 $100 +$2 +2%
Sparta Rotterdam vs. PSV: O/U 4.5 Apr 11 $100 +$2 +2%
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-04-11? Apr 11 $200 +$6 +3%
Will Viking FK win on 2026-04-11? Apr 11 $200 +$3 +2%
Viking FK vs. FK Bodø/Glimt: O/U 3.5 Apr 11 $100 +$7 +7%
AVS Futebol vs. Vitória SC: O/U 4.5 Apr 11 $100 +$2 +2%
Will Eintracht Frankfurt win on 2026-04-11? Apr 11 $200 +$7 +3%
BV Borussia 09 Dortmund vs. Bayer 04 Leverkusen: O/U 3.5 Apr 11 $100 +$2 +2%
BV Borussia 09 Dortmund vs. Bayer 04 Leverkusen: O/U 4.5 Apr 11 $200 +$2 +1%
Thunder vs. Nuggets: O/U 232.5 Apr 11 $308 −$205 -66%
Delfino Pescara 1936 vs. UC Sampdoria: O/U 3.5 Apr 11 $40 +$1 +2%
Will SS Juve Stabia win on 2026-04-11? Apr 11 $200 +$6 +3%
Will Club Tijuana win on 2026-04-10? Apr 11 $300 +$1 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? SELL No 100¢ $219 1h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 91¢ $201 1h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 91¢ $201 1h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 4.5 SELL Under 99¢ $223 1h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 75¢ $102 2h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 73¢ $101 2h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 89¢ $201 2h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 5.5 SELL Under 97¢ $206 2h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 4.5 SELL Under 91¢ $214 2h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 85¢ $201 2h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 94¢ $200 2h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 4.5 SELL Under 89¢ $211 10h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 84¢ $201 10h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 86¢ $151 27h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 97¢ $190 27h
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 96¢ $171 36h
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 4.5 SELL Under 99¢ $215 36h
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 84¢ $151 37h
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 93¢ $200 37h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 4.5 SELL Under 100¢ $347 2d
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 76¢ $101 2d
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 92¢ $200 2d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 4.5 SELL Under 87¢ $190 2d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 61¢ $117 2d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 77¢ $151 2d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 91¢ $201 2d
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 4.5 SELL Under 95¢ $212 3d
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 59¢ $142 3d
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 85¢ $190 3d
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 82¢ $201 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $830.97 · official $830.97 (match) · 554 history records