Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T19:47:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
04 0x0457…3e4a other 22 markets active 4d ago coverage 235d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$148 (-23%) realized −$148 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -18% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR14%break-even
Win rate14%3W / 19L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$29per market
Trades / day4.1pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit55%portable
Net worth$34now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$9
14 days−$9
30 days−$9
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
economics 53% −$124
world 25% −$10
other 21% −$11
sports 1% −$3
crypto 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +14%
net ROI/market (all)-26.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -13.6% -21.8% 33% 33% -26.0%
≤30d 9 -13.6% -21.8% 33% 33% -26.0%
≤90d 9 -13.6% -21.8% 33% 33% -26.0%
all 22 -18.3% -26.1% 14% 14% -31.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -26.1% 14% -31.2%
10% -33.1% 14% -37.8%
15% -39.6% 14% -43.8%
20% -45.5% 14% -49.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 48% · top 2 94% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -18% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -18% · $-wt -24% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -21% → late -15% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
4.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$9 · ×0.7 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.11 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

235d coverage
Net worth$34
Realized−$148
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)14%
Wins / losses3 / 19
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)22 / 22
History coverage235d
Avg bet$29
Trades / day4.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit55%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 22 Trades
no open positions (4 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -99%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $2 +$1 +56%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $4 −$3 -99%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $6 −$6 -99%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $13 +$9 +68%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $14 −$14 -99%
Will Argentina win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $5 $0 -3%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $10 +$8 +82%
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 11 $5 −$3 -55%
Tether insolvent in 2025? Oct 26 $2 −$1 -36%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Oct 26 $3 $0 -10%
Putin out as President of Russia in 2025? Oct 26 $6 $0 -4%
US recession in 2025? Oct 26 $137 −$40 -29%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025? Oct 26 $117 −$6 -5%
Weed rescheduled in 2025? Oct 26 $74 −$4 -6%
Nuclear weapon detonation in 2025? Oct 26 $3 −$1 -17%
Netanyahu out by 2025? Oct 26 $4 $0 -14%
Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2025? Oct 26 $33 −$22 -67%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran in 2025? Oct 26 $32 −$4 -11%
Will 3 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Oct 26 $50 −$15 -30%
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Oct 26 $107 −$46 -43%
Fed rate hike in 2025? Oct 23 $1 $0 -7%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 54¢ $1 3d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 64¢ $2 4d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $4 4d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 81¢ $6 4d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 47¢ $8 5d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 54¢ $14 5d
Will Argentina win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 71¢ $1 5d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 49¢ $1 5d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 37¢ $5 5d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 36¢ $3 5d
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? SELL Yes $2 5d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 49¢ $1 5d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 36¢ $2 5d
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? SELL Yes 11¢ $1 5d
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY Yes 12¢ $5 6d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 37¢ $5 6d
Will Argentina win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 71¢ $3 6d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 49¢ $2 6d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 50¢ $5 6d
Will Argentina win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 72¢ $5 6d
Tether insolvent in 2025? SELL Yes $0 234d
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? SELL Yes $0 234d
Putin out as President of Russia in 2025? SELL Yes $0 234d
US recession in 2025? SELL Yes $0 234d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025? SELL Yes 12¢ $1 234d
Weed rescheduled in 2025? SELL Yes 17¢ $1 234d
Nuclear weapon detonation in 2025? SELL Yes $2 234d
Netanyahu out by 2025? SELL Yes $3 234d
Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2025? SELL Yes $10 234d
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran in 2025? SELL Yes 11¢ $14 234d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $33.66 · official $33.66 (match) · 955 history records