Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T11:12:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
04 0x0459…0fcb other 49 markets active 2h ago coverage 5d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$758 (-30%) realized −$749 · open −$9
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -52% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -60% what you keep after slip
Net edge-60%after slip
Net WR8%break-even
Win rate8%3W / 36L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$51per market
Trades / day19.6pace
Fees−$22est.
Kalshi-fit47%portable
Net worth$501now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 5d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 59% −$604
sports 37% −$162
world 3% −$2
crypto 0% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +8%
net ROI/market (all)-57.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 39 -52.5% -57.1% 8% 8% -45.9%
≤30d 39 -52.5% -57.1% 8% 8% -45.9%
≤90d 39 -52.5% -57.1% 8% 8% -45.9%
all 39 -52.5% -57.1% 8% 8% -45.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover19.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -57.1% 8% -45.9%
10% -61.2% 8% -51.1%
15% -64.9% 8% -55.8%
20% -68.4% 8% -60.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 50% · top 2 83% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -42% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -53% · $-wt -42% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -70% → late -36% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$182 vs −$37 · ×4.98 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.42 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

5d coverage
Net worth$501
Realized−$749
Unrealized−$9
Win rate (resolved)8%
Wins / losses3 / 36
Est. fees paid−$22
Open positions10
Markets (closed)39 / 49
History coverage5d
Avg bet$51
Trades / day19.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit47%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 10 History 39 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Yes 89¢ 88¢ $200 $199 −$1 (-1%)
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? Yes 27¢ 26¢ $60 $59 −$1 (-2%)
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Yes 25¢ 24¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-2%)
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 25¢ 24¢ $50 $47 −$3 (-6%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 18¢ 18¢ $40 $40 −$0 (-0%)
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? Yes 22¢ 22¢ $30 $31 +$1 (+2%)
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Yes 29¢ 28¢ $30 $29 −$1 (-2%)
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? Yes 18¢ 18¢ $20 $19 −$1 (-3%)
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? Yes 18¢ 16¢ $20 $18 −$2 (-8%)
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? Yes 8¢ 8¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 30 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $77 −$75 -98%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 19 $56 −$55 -98%
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? Jun 18 $41 −$40 -98%
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 18 $43 −$42 -98%
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 18 $51 +$178 +347%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $21 −$20 -97%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $15 −$15 -98%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $26 −$25 -98%
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? Jun 18 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $27 −$26 -97%
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Jun 18 $32 −$26 -82%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $51 +$275 +536%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $41 −$40 -98%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $20 −$1 -4%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $31 −$2 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -97%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $97 −$66 -68%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $17 −$17 -97%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $41 −$40 -98%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $23 −$22 -97%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $16 −$16 -97%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 16 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $15 −$15 -98%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $26 −$25 -98%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $77 −$75 -98%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $36 −$1 -4%
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 16 $24 −$23 -98%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $101 −$3 -3%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $101 −$3 -4%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $81 −$2 -3%
Spread: Uruguay (-2.5) Jun 15 $51 −$49 -98%
Spread: Spain (-3.5) Jun 15 $51 −$50 -98%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $101 −$100 -99%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $101 +$94 +93%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $101 −$100 -99%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $101 −$100 -99%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 14 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $102 −$100 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $31 1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 89¢ $100 1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 89¢ $100 1h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 25¢ $51 4h
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $31 4h
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $31 4h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 18¢ $20 4h
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? BUY Yes 8¢ $10 4h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 18¢ $20 4h
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $31 4h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 8h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 8h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 8h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 8h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 2¢ $2 8h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 3¢ $3 8h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 4¢ $6 8h
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $26 8h
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $20 14h
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 14h
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 14h
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 13¢ $15 14h
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $20 17h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 25¢ $31 18h
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $31 30h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 24¢ $31 30h
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $20 30h
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 8¢ $21 30h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 15¢ $15 30h
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $26 30h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $501.17 · official $501.18 (match) · 94 history records