Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T17:30:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
04 0x0459…437f other 56 markets active 2h ago coverage 127d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$11,258 (-42%) realized −$11,492 · open +$234
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -29% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -36% what you keep after slip
Net edge-36%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate39%20W / 31L
Whale WR54%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$473per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Fees−$9est.
Kalshi-fit21%portable
Net worth$1,547now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$6,525
7 days−$11,102
14 days−$11,102
30 days−$11,602
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 89% −$10,853
sports 7% +$776
world 4% −$1,000
crypto 0% +$27
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-35.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 26 -35.2% -41.3% 31% 31% -76.0%
≤30d 27 -37.6% -43.5% 30% 30% -76.8%
≤90d 39 -25.8% -32.9% 38% 38% -60.5%
all 51 -28.8% -35.6% 39% 39% -50.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -35.6% 39% -50.3%
10% -41.8% 37% -55.1%
15% -47.4% 33% -59.4%
20% -52.6% 25% -63.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 24% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -56% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -29% · $-wt -45% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 54% (≥$506) neutral
Persistence
early -22% → late -35% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$252 vs −$527 · ×0.48 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.31 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

127d coverage
Net worth$1,547
Realized−$11,492
Unrealized+$234
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses20 / 31
Whale WR (big bets)54%
Est. fees paid−$9
Open positions5
Markets (closed)51 / 56
History coverage127d
Avg bet$473
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit21%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 51 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Yes 77¢ 92¢ $1,000 $1,188 +$188 (+19%)
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 DR Congo? Yes 13¢ 18¢ $100 $135 +$35 (+35%)
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 1 DR Congo? Yes 8¢ 10¢ $100 $119 +$19 (+19%)
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals Yes 54¢ 50¢ $100 $94 −$6 (-6%)
Will Charles Leclerc get pole position at the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand Prix? No 96¢ 84¢ $13 $11 −$2 (-12%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 30 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Erling Haaland: 2+ goals Jun 17 $102 +$201 +197%
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 2 Norway? Jun 16 $103 −$100 -98%
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 3 Norway? Jun 16 $103 −$100 -98%
Michael Olise: 1+ goals Jun 16 $44 −$44 -98%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $505 −$500 -99%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1,013 −$1,000 -99%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $5,034 −$4,983 -99%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $2,006 −$2,000 -100%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $304 +$273 +90%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 14 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $204 +$509 +249%
Will Charles Leclerc win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? Jun 14 $51 −$50 -97%
Will George Russell win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? Jun 14 $1,013 −$1,000 -99%
Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? Jun 14 $511 −$500 -98%
Will Charles Leclerc finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Catalunya Gra Jun 14 $103 −$100 -97%
Will Lando Norris finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Jun 14 $203 −$200 -99%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $202 +$110 +55%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $1,012 −$1,000 -99%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 13 $506 −$500 -99%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $503 −$500 -100%
Will George Russell get pole position at the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand P Jun 13 $203 +$167 +83%
Will Kimi Antonelli get pole position at the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand P Jun 13 $102 −$100 -98%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $102 +$116 +114%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $203 −$200 -99%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $504 +$210 +42%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-10? Jun 11 $506 +$288 +57%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $510 −$500 -98%
Will Arsenal FC vs. Club Atlético de Madrid end in a draw? May 05 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Lando Norris finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Miami Grand Prix May 04 $508 +$492 +97%
Will Max Verstappen win the 2026 F1 Miami Grand Prix? May 04 $1,008 +$363 +36%
Will Charles Leclerc finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Miami Grand P May 03 $101 −$100 -99%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-02? May 03 $505 +$241 +48%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-04-19? Apr 19 $200 −$195 -98%
Spread: Manchester City FC (-1.5) Mar 21 $350 −$265 -76%
Spread: Arsenal FC (-2.5) Mar 21 $80 +$33 +41%
Chelsea FC vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC: O/U 3.5 Mar 21 $80 +$71 +89%
Arsenal FC vs. Bayer 04 Leverkusen: O/U 2.5 Mar 21 $80 +$115 +144%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-03-17? Mar 21 $800 +$239 +30%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-03-22? Mar 21 $500 −$500 -100%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-03-17? Mar 16 $500 −$500 -100%
Will Bayer 04 Leverkusen win on 2026-03-17? Mar 16 $30 −$30 -100%
Manchester City FC vs. Real Madrid CF: O/U 2.5 Mar 16 $60 −$60 -100%
Will George Russell win the 2026 F1 Australian Grand Prix? Mar 08 $1,207 +$225 +19%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-03-01? Mar 07 $1,000 +$613 +61%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-02-22? Mar 01 $300 +$162 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 12, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Feb 22 $100 +$27 +28%
Will Tottenham Hotspur FC vs. Arsenal FC end in a draw? Feb 22 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Tottenham Hotspur FC win on 2026-02-22? Feb 22 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-02-12? Feb 12 $500 −$500 -100%
Qatar Total Open: Qinwen Zheng vs Elena Rybakina Feb 12 $800 +$593 +74%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $1,007 1h
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals BUY Yes 54¢ $101 1h
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 DR Congo? BUY Yes 13¢ $103 1h
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 1 DR Congo? BUY Yes 8¢ $103 1h
Erling Haaland: 2+ goals BUY Yes 33¢ $102 19h
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 2 Norway? BUY Yes 16¢ $103 19h
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 3 Norway? BUY Yes 14¢ $103 19h
Michael Olise: 1+ goals BUY Yes 33¢ $44 22h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 64¢ $505 43h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 55¢ $1,013 43h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 66¢ $5,034 46h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 90¢ $2,006 2d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 52¢ $304 2d
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? BUY Yes 34¢ $102 2d
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $714 2d
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $204 2d
Will Charles Leclerc win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? BUY Yes 1¢ $51 3d
Will George Russell win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? BUY Yes 57¢ $1,013 3d
Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? BUY Yes 24¢ $511 3d
Will Charles Leclerc finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Catalunya Gra BUY Yes 11¢ $103 3d
Will Lando Norris finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand BUY No 57¢ $203 3d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $1,012 3d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 58¢ $506 4d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 64¢ $202 4d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 82¢ $503 4d
Will Charles Leclerc get pole position at the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand P BUY No 96¢ $13 4d
Will George Russell get pole position at the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand P SELL Yes 100¢ $370 4d
Will George Russell get pole position at the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand P BUY Yes 54¢ $203 4d
Will Kimi Antonelli get pole position at the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand P BUY Yes 28¢ $102 4d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 46¢ $102 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,546.57 · official $1,546.57 (match) · 80 history records