Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T03:27:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.5
score
04 0x045b…9ab6 other 5 markets active 1h ago coverage 10d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$250 (-28%) realized −$250 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -51% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -56% what you keep after slip
Net edge-56%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate25%1W / 3L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$178per market
Trades / day0.9pace
Kalshi-fit0%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 10d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 100% −$283
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-55.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -50.9% -55.6% 25% 25% -38.3%
≤30d 4 -50.9% -55.6% 25% 25% -38.3%
≤90d 4 -50.9% -55.6% 25% 25% -38.3%
all 4 -50.9% -55.6% 25% 25% -38.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -55.6% 25% -38.3%
10% -59.9% 0% -44.2%
15% -63.7% 0% -49.6%
20% -67.3% 0% -54.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -32% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -51% · $-wt -32% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$97 · ×0.09 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.03 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

10d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized−$250
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)25%
Wins / losses1 / 3
Open positions1
Markets (closed)4 / 5
History coverage10d
Avg bet$178
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit0%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 4 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-28%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Ecuador 0 - 0 Curaçao? Jun 21 $86 +$9 +11%
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 1 Haiti? Jun 20 $103 −$103 -100%
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 2 Haiti? Jun 20 $103 −$103 -100%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $599 −$86 -14%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Ecuador 0 - 0 Curaçao? SELL Yes 100¢ $95 1h
Exact Score: Ecuador 0 - 0 Curaçao? BUY Yes 90¢ $86 1h
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 1 Haiti? BUY Yes 8¢ $103 27h
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 2 Haiti? BUY Yes 2¢ $103 27h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 14¢ $221 27h
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 9d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $291 9d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 17¢ $291 9d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $307 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.08 · official $1.08 (match) · 22 history records