Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T08:37:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
04 0x045c…7b25 crypto 27 markets active 1h ago coverage 3d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 3d of captured history — unreliable✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$285 (-29%) realized −$284 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -5% what you keep after slip
Net edge-5%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate55%12W / 10L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$37per market
Trades / day14.7pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit81%portable
Net worth$24now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 69% +$54
other 19% −$175
sports 11% −$45
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)+2.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 22 +13.5% +2.7% 55% 45% -25.5%
≤30d 22 +13.5% +2.7% 55% 45% -25.5%
≤90d 22 +13.5% +2.7% 55% 45% -25.5%
all 22 +13.5% +2.7% 55% 45% -25.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover14.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +2.7% 45% -25.5%
10% -7.1% 32% -32.6%
15% -16.1% 32% -39.1%
20% -24.3% 32% -45.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 43% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -18% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
17% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +14% · $-wt -18% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -17% → late +44% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$14 vs −$33 · ×0.42 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.5 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$24
Realized−$284
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses12 / 10
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)22 / 27
History coverage3d
Avg bet$37
Trades / day14.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit81%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 22 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 5¢ $20 $19 −$1 (-7%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 8¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 8 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 27 $5 +$28 +529%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 27 $100 +$5 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 27 $170 +$23 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 27 $5 +$7 +129%
Will Egypt vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Jun 27 $56 +$6 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 27 $95 +$4 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 27 $26 +$21 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 26 $102 +$14 +14%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 25 $51 −$51 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 25 $26 −$25 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 25 $1 +$1 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 25 $26 +$42 +160%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 25 $27 −$26 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 25 $2 $0 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 25 $6 +$7 +104%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 25 $10 +$6 +58%
Will Scotland vs. Brazil end in a draw? Jun 24 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar end in a draw? Jun 24 $27 −$26 -98%
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? Jun 24 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $152 −$150 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Up 15¢ $5 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $100 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET BUY Down 90¢ $64 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $100 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET BUY Down 33¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Down 42¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $70 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET BUY Down 87¢ $25 3h
Will Egypt vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY Yes 90¢ $56 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $26 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET BUY Up 87¢ $101 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET BUY Up 77¢ $1 8h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 36¢ $10 13h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 36¢ $10 13h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 16¢ $5 13h
Will Uruguay vs. Spain end in a draw? AND Will Belgium win on 2026-06- BUY 1¢ $3 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Up 67¢ $26 34h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $26 34h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Down 80¢ $25 34h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $1 36h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET SELL Up 98¢ $68 39h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET BUY Up 36¢ $26 39h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET BUY Up 39¢ $26 39h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET BUY Up 41¢ $1 39h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Up 43¢ $1 42h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $1 42h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $1 42h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Up 39¢ $5 42h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET SELL Down 36¢ $9 42h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET BUY Down 20¢ $5 42h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $23.57 · official $23.57 (match) · 55 history records