Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T17:39:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
04 0x0463…61f3 sports 52 markets active 0h ago coverage 252d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialistFresh edge
Total PnL −$1,870 (-38%) realized −$1,748 · open −$122
Gross ROI / mkt +60% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +45% what you keep after slip
Net edge+45%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate31%15W / 34L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$95per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$17est.
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$128now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$100
7 days+$651
14 days+$8
30 days−$92
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 57% −$168
other 43% −$1,836
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)+44.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +151.6% +127.6% 38% 38% +77.8%
≤30d 23 +133.9% +111.6% 35% 35% -13.0%
≤90d 23 +133.9% +111.6% 35% 35% -13.0%
all 49 +60.0% +44.7% 31% 31% -46.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +44.7% 31% -46.0%
10% +30.9% 31% -51.1%
15% +18.2% 31% -55.9%
20% +6.7% 31% -60.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 43% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +60% · $-wt -40% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +3% → late +115% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$146 vs −$120 · ×1.22 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.54 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

252d coverage
Net worth$128
Realized−$1,748
Unrealized−$122
Win rate (resolved)31%
Wins / losses15 / 34
Est. fees paid−$17
Open positions3
Markets (closed)49 / 52
History coverage252d
Avg bet$95
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 49 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Colombia vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Yes 24¢ 24¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-2%)
Will England win on 2026-06-23? No 18¢ 18¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-3%)
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? No $150 $30 −$120 (-80%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 33 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $103 −$100 -97%
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 21 $51 +$449 +874%
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? Jun 19 $51 −$50 -97%
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 18 $51 +$187 +365%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $102 +$486 +474%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $205 −$200 -97%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 17 $21 −$20 -97%
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 16 $31 −$30 -98%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $21 −$20 -98%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $51 −$50 -98%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $51 +$121 +238%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $21 +$302 +1469%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1,108 −$1,100 -99%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 15 $51 −$7 -13%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $51 +$116 +226%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 15 $20 +$51 +250%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 14 $31 −$30 -97%
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Jun 14 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? Jun 13 $31 +$184 +596%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $31 −$30 -97%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $102 −$100 -98%
LoL: T1 vs KT Rolster (BO5) Nov 09 $1,000 −$1,000 -100%
LoL: T1 vs Top Esports (BO5) Nov 02 $520 −$520 -100%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster (BO5) Nov 01 $20 −$20 -100%
LoL: KT Rolster vs CTBC Flying Oyster (BO5) Oct 31 $50 +$27 +54%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs T1 (BO5) Oct 31 $50 +$54 +108%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Top Esports (BO5) Oct 30 $50 −$50 -100%
Over $1B committed to the MegaETH public sale? Oct 28 $100 −$100 -100%
LoL: T1 vs Movistar KOI (BO3) Oct 25 $10 −$10 -100%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming (BO3) Oct 25 $100 −$100 -100%
LoL: T1 vs CTBC Flying Oyster (BO1) Oct 25 $10 +$28 +285%
LoL: Movistar KOI vs G2 Esports (BO1) Oct 25 $20 +$24 +122%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Bilibili Gaming (BO1) Oct 25 $20 +$34 +170%
LoL: KT Rolster vs Top Esports (BO3) Oct 25 $20 +$41 +203%
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs 100 Thieves (BO1) Oct 25 $10 +$82 +818%
LoL: 100 Thieves vs T1 (BO3) Oct 24 $10 −$10 -100%
LoL: Movistar KOI vs Team Secret Whales (BO3) Oct 23 $20 −$20 -100%
LoL: Gen.G vs Top Esports (BO3) Oct 23 $20 −$20 -100%
LoL: 100 Thieves vs Hanwha Life Esports (BO1) Oct 18 $20 −$20 -100%
LoL: Gen.G vs T1 (BO1) Oct 18 $20 −$20 -100%
LoL: Team Secret Whales vs FlyQuest (BO1) Oct 18 $20 −$20 -100%
LoL: CTBC Flying Oyster vs Anyone's Legend (BO3) Oct 17 $20 −$20 -100%
LoL: Top Esports vs 100 Thieves (BO1) Oct 16 $10 −$10 -100%
LoL: Gen.G vs PSG Talon (BO1) Oct 15 $10 −$10 -100%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Top Esports (BO1) Oct 15 $20 −$20 -100%
LoL: FlyQuest vs T1 (BO1) Oct 15 $10 −$10 -100%
LoL: T1 vs Invictus Gaming (BO5) Oct 14 $100 −$100 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY No $21 28m
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY No $31 28m
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY No 15¢ $51 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY No 18¢ $51 2h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY No 15¢ $51 3h
Will Colombia vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $51 3h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY No 33¢ $102 25h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 11¢ $103 2d
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 10¢ $51 3d
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? BUY Yes $51 4d
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $51 5d
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes $103 5d
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes $21 5d
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes $31 5d
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $102 6d
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes $51 6d
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY Yes 11¢ $21 6d
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $31 7d
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? BUY Yes 13¢ $21 7d
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $51 7d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 52¢ $304 7d
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? SELL Yes 21¢ $45 8d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 84¢ $804 8d
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $51 8d
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $51 8d
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes $21 8d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 30¢ $51 9d
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $20 9d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 27¢ $102 9d
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes $31 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $127.51 · official $127.51 (match) · 88 history records