Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T04:09:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
04 0x0464…f91f crypto 13 markets active 1h ago coverage 7d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$15 (-8%) realized −$15 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -67% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -70% what you keep after slip
Net edge-70%after slip
Net WR8%break-even
Win rate8%1W / 12L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$15per market
Trades / day2.7pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 7d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 88% −$53
sports 11% −$21
world 2% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +8%
net ROI/market (all)-70.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 -57.3% -61.4% 10% 10% -42.1%
≤30d 13 -67.2% -70.3% 8% 8% -46.2%
≤90d 13 -67.2% -70.3% 8% 8% -46.2%
all 13 -67.2% -70.3% 8% 8% -46.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -70.3% 8% -46.2%
10% -73.1% 8% -51.3%
15% -75.7% 8% -56.0%
20% -78.1% 8% -60.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -40% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -67% · $-wt -40% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -35% → late -95% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$77 vs −$13 · ×6.01 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.5 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

7d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$15
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)8%
Wins / losses1 / 12
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)13 / 13
History coverage7d
Avg bet$15
Trades / day2.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 13 Trades
no open positions (3 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 23 $6 −$6 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 23 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 23 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 23 $27 −$17 -65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 23 $27 −$27 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 23 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 23 $32 −$32 -100%
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 23 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 23 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 23 $26 +$77 +291%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -95%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 30 history records