Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T02:53:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

04
0x0468…8198
other · 26 markets active 1h ago
4.0score
+$4 +0%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$3 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP ⚠ Small sample
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$526
Realized+$3
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)80%
Wins / losses20 / 5
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Open positions1
Markets (closed)25 / 26
History coverage96d
Avg bet$173
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit46%
Chart Positions 1 History 25 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$3
14 days+$5
30 days+$11
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? No 99¢ 99¢ $526 $526 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 46-47°F on March 18? No 93¢ 0¢ $9 $0 −$9 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from March 31 to April 7, 2026? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from March 27 to April 3, 2026? Yes 8¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 36-37°F on March 18? Yes 5¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 12°C on March 22? Yes 12¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $529 +$1 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $528 +$2 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 05 $529 +$1 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 02 $528 +$2 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 26 $527 +$3 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? May 22 $519 +$1 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? May 19 $518 +$2 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? May 15 $20 $0 +2%
Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026? May 06 $23 +$1 +3%
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from April 17 to April 24, 2026? Apr 25 $20 $0 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from April 7 to April 14, 2026? Apr 15 $20 $0 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from March 31 to April 7, 2026? Apr 08 $20 $0 -2%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from March 27 to April 3, 2026? Apr 03 $25 −$3 -12%
Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on March 23? Mar 24 $10 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in London be 13°C on March 23? Mar 24 $10 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in London be 11°C on March 22? Mar 23 $10 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in London be 12°C on March 22? Mar 23 $11 −$1 -11%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 48-49°F on March 18 Mar 19 $12 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 36-37°F on March 18 Mar 19 $9 −$1 -6%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 46-47°F on March 18 Mar 17 $9 −$9 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 14°C on March 16? Mar 17 $9 +$1 +7%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on March 14? Mar 15 $20 $0 +2%
Will ChatGPT be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on March 13? Mar 14 $29 +$1 +4%
LoL: French Flair vs 3BL Esports (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group E Mar 12 $25 +$1 +4%
Will ChatGPT be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on March 10? Mar 11 $21 +$1 +6%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 96% +$9
weather 2% −$9
tech 1% +$3
sports 1% +$1
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $526 1h
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $529 2d
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 4d
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $491 6d
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $15 6d
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $22 6d
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $529 8d
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $264 13d
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $10 13d
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $254 13d
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 19d
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $527 19d
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $519 24d
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 24d
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $499 25d
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $20 26d
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $20 38d
Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $23 48d
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from April 17 to April 24, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $20 59d
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from April 7 to April 14, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $20 66d
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from March 31 to April 7, 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 69d
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from March 31 to April 7, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $19 70d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from March 27 to April 3, 2026? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 72d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from March 27 to April 3, 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 72d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from March 27 to April 3, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $4 75d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from March 27 to April 3, 2026? SELL Yes 7¢ $2 76d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from March 27 to April 3, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $2 76d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from March 27 to April 3, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $10 80d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from March 27 to April 3, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $10 80d
Will the highest temperature in London be 13°C on March 23? BUY No 97¢ $10 81d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-26.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +0.2% -9.3% 100% 0% -9.3%
≤30d 8 +0.5% -9.0% 100% 0% -9.3%
≤90d 22 -21.4% -28.9% 77% 0% -9.5%
all 25 -18.2% -26.0% 80% 0% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -26.0% 0% -9.4%
10% -33.1% 0% -18.1%
15% -39.6% 0% -26.0%
20% -45.5% 0% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $526.02 · official $526.02 (match) · 70 history records