Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T12:49:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
04 0x046a…7316 crypto 28 markets active 10h ago coverage 118d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$56 (+20%) realized +$56 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +16% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +5% what you keep after slip
Net edge+5%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate48%13W / 14L
Drawdown70%max
Avg bet$10per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$5now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$6
7 days−$86
14 days−$86
30 days−$83
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 63% +$54
other 20% −$23
world 13% +$17
sports 4% +$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)+4.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 -71.0% -73.8% 13% 13% -69.4%
≤30d 16 -62.0% -65.6% 19% 19% -64.6%
≤90d 17 -55.6% -59.8% 24% 24% -44.5%
all 27 +15.9% +4.8% 48% 44% +8.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +4.8% 44% +8.5%
10% -5.2% 44% -1.9%
15% -14.4% 44% -11.4%
20% -22.8% 37% -20.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 49% · top 2 59% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -39% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +16% · $-wt +20% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +128% → late -88% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$13 vs −$8 · ×1.59 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.47 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

118d coverage
Net worth$5
Realized+$56
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses13 / 14
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)27 / 28
History coverage118d
Avg bet$10
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown70%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 27 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $10 +$6 +62%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $20 −$20 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 19, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 19, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 19, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 19, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 18, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 19, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 12 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 19, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 22, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 19, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 19, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 12 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $10 +$18 +172%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 02 $5 +$4 +73%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Apr 01 $35 +$17 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 22, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Mar 01 $5 +$3 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 22, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Mar 01 $5 +$3 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 19, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Feb 19 $20 −$3 -17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 19, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Feb 19 $10 +$12 +119%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 18, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Feb 19 $5 +$5 +110%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 19, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Feb 19 $9 +$81 +865%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 18, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Feb 19 $10 +$5 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 18, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Feb 19 $15 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 18, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Feb 19 $10 +$8 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Feb 19 $10 +$6 +64%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY Yes 61¢ $10 10h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 81¢ $10 3d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 58¢ $20 3d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 36¢ $10 6d
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 11¢ $10 6d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $5 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $5 24d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? SELL No 89¢ $52 76d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? BUY No 62¢ $30 104d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? BUY No 52¢ $5 107d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 22, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET BUY Up 65¢ $5 113d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 22, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET BUY Up 65¢ $5 114d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 22, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET BUY Down 8¢ $5 114d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 19, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET BUY Up 6¢ $1 116d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 19, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET BUY Up 7¢ $1 116d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 19, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET BUY Up 15¢ $1 116d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 19, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET BUY Down 9¢ $1 116d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 19, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET BUY Down 20¢ $6 117d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 19, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $10 117d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 19, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $10 117d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 19, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Up 44¢ $10 117d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 19, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET BUY Up 22¢ $5 117d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 19, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $10 117d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 19, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET BUY Up 76¢ $10 117d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 19, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET BUY Up 7¢ $5 117d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 19, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET BUY Up 7¢ $10 117d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 19, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET BUY Down 3¢ $5 117d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 19, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET BUY Down 10¢ $9 117d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 18, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $5 117d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 18, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET BUY Up 67¢ $10 117d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4.87 · official $4.87 (match) · 69 history records