Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T23:01:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
04 0x046b…340d other 212 markets active 0h ago coverage 112d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$20,261 (-6%) realized −$20,238 · open −$23
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate54%113W / 98L
Whale WR66%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,602per market
Trades / day3.7pace
Fees−$530est.
Kalshi-fit25%portable
Net worth$3,835now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1,849
7 days+$4,350
14 days−$797
30 days−$17,248
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 77% −$5,004
sports 22% −$17,185
world 1% +$844
crypto 0% +$553
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-19.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 +17.0% +5.9% 70% 70% +8.4%
≤30d 24 -29.3% -36.0% 42% 42% -37.9%
≤90d 163 -18.1% -25.9% 49% 40% -20.9%
all 211 -11.2% -19.6% 54% 46% -15.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -19.6% 46% -15.2%
10% -27.3% 38% -23.3%
15% -34.4% 29% -30.7%
20% -40.8% 24% -37.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -13% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 66% (≥$2,169) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +14% → late -36% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$665 vs −$979 · ×0.68 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.78 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

112d coverage
Net worth$3,835
Realized−$20,238
Unrealized−$23
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses113 / 98
Whale WR (big bets)66%
Est. fees paid−$530
Open positions1
Markets (closed)211 / 212
History coverage112d
Avg bet$1,602
Trades / day3.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit25%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 211 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Yes 85¢ 84¢ $3,858 $3,835 −$23 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 22 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $4,752 −$235 -5%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $620 +$425 +69%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $2,913 +$807 +28%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $560 +$353 +63%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 19 $93 −$90 -97%
Spread: Canada (-1.5) Jun 18 $2,014 +$588 +29%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $1,224 +$840 +69%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $2,466 −$1,241 -50%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $2,169 +$467 +22%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $5,194 +$2,435 +47%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $44 −$43 -98%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $5,183 −$5,104 -98%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $1,945 −$1,892 -97%
Spread: US Lecce (-1.5) May 24 $2,784 −$2,723 -98%
Will SSC Napoli win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $2,383 +$414 +17%
Will Manchester City FC vs. Aston Villa FC end in a draw? May 24 $2,442 −$2,363 -97%
Will Tottenham Hotspur FC win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $2,029 +$1,271 +63%
Will West Ham United FC win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $2,622 −$280 -11%
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $784 −$662 -84%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $4,823 −$4,039 -84%
Spread: Manchester City FC (-1.5) May 24 $2,032 −$1,867 -92%
Glory in Giza: Oleksandr Usyk vs. Rico Verhoeven May 23 $7,262 −$2,601 -36%
Will Middlesbrough achieve promotion from the EFL Championship to the May 23 $2,020 −$1,980 -98%
Will Racing Club de Lens win on 2026-05-22? May 22 $1,589 +$270 +17%
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-05-20? May 20 $1,699 +$1,060 +62%
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-05-19? May 19 $2,219 +$2,332 +105%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-19? May 19 $2,320 −$1,588 -68%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-18? May 18 $7,570 +$271 +4%
Spread: Arsenal FC (-1.5) May 18 $2,519 −$2,500 -99%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-17? May 18 $5,142 +$1,645 +32%
Will Olympique Lyonnais win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $1,999 −$1,648 -82%
Will Newcastle United FC win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $6,226 +$565 +9%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Jannik Sinner vs Casper Ruud May 17 $5,490 +$735 +13%
Will Everton FC win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $540 −$527 -98%
Will Fulham FC win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $500 −$488 -98%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-16? May 16 $1,702 +$653 +38%
Will Celtic FC win on 2026-05-16? May 16 $2,439 +$1,431 +59%
Will Motherwell FC vs. Celtic FC end in a draw? May 13 $7,036 −$6,906 -98%
Will Heart of Midlothian FC win on 2026-05-13? May 13 $4,527 +$1,240 +27%
Will Celtic FC win on 2026-05-13? May 13 $4,046 −$2,781 -69%
Will Southampton FC win on 2026-05-12? May 12 $643 −$631 -98%
Starmer out by May 15, 2026? May 12 $1,438 −$967 -67%
Will Millwall FC win on 2026-05-11? May 11 $999 −$908 -91%
Will Tottenham Hotspur FC win on 2026-05-11? May 11 $1,499 −$1,465 -98%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-10? May 10 $500 +$213 +43%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-10? May 10 $1,099 +$594 +54%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-10? May 10 $4,501 +$2,313 +51%
Will Nottingham Forest FC vs. Newcastle United FC end in a draw? May 10 $150 +$341 +228%
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-05-10? May 10 $1,999 −$1,182 -59%
Will Celtic FC win on 2026-05-10? May 10 $560 +$460 +82%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 85¢ $3,914 7m
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 41¢ $1,649 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 14¢ $604 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 68¢ $3,103 4h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 58¢ $620 6h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 77¢ $2,913 24h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 60¢ $560 28h
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $93 44h
Spread: Canada (-1.5) SELL Canada 100¢ $2,603 47h
Spread: Canada (-1.5) BUY Canada 76¢ $2,014 2d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 58¢ $1,224 3d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 40¢ $1,224 3d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $2,466 3d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 81¢ $2,169 4d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $7,629 4d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 66¢ $5,194 4d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $44 7d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 82¢ $5,183 7d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? BUY Yes 40¢ $1,931 21d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? BUY Yes 39¢ $14 21d
Spread: US Lecce (-1.5) BUY US Lecce 25¢ $2,784 27d
Will SSC Napoli win on 2026-05-24? SELL Yes 100¢ $2,798 27d
Will SSC Napoli win on 2026-05-24? BUY Yes 83¢ $2,383 27d
Will Manchester City FC vs. Aston Villa FC end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $2,442 27d
Will Tottenham Hotspur FC win on 2026-05-24? SELL Yes 87¢ $3,300 27d
Will West Ham United FC win on 2026-05-24? SELL Yes 98¢ $1,403 27d
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-05-24? SELL Yes 11¢ $122 27d
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-05-24? BUY Yes 64¢ $784 27d
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-24? SELL Yes 12¢ $784 27d
Will West Ham United FC win on 2026-05-24? BUY Yes 75¢ $1,103 27d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3,835.16 · official $3,835.16 (match) · 470 history records