Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T08:26:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
04 0x046b…81ff other 9 markets active 2d ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$98 (+14%) realized +$81 · open +$17
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -29% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -41% what you keep after slip
Net edge-41%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate33%1W / 2L
Drawdown53%max
Avg bet$79per market
Trades / day10.0pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit33%portable
Net worth$567now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 80% +$131
crypto 15% +$1
sports 6% −$40
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-35.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -29.0% -35.8% 33% 33% +38.6%
≤30d 3 -29.0% -35.8% 33% 33% +38.6%
≤90d 3 -29.0% -35.8% 33% 33% +38.6%
all 3 -29.0% -35.8% 33% 33% +38.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -35.8% 33% +38.6%
10% -41.9% 33% +25.3%
15% -47.5% 33% +13.2%
20% -52.7% 33% +2.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +53% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -29% · $-wt +53% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$116 vs −$20 · ×5.79 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.89 per $1 lost it wins $2.89
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$567
Realized+$81
Unrealized+$17
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses1 / 2
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions6
Markets (closed)3 / 9
History coverage1d
Avg bet$79
Trades / day10.0
Drawdown53%
Kalshi-fit33%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 3 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 18¢ $200 $219 +$19 (+10%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 9¢ $100 $108 +$8 (+8%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 5¢ $100 $101 +$1 (+1%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 14¢ $100 $87 −$13 (-13%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $30 $29 −$1 (-2%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $20 $22 +$2 (+9%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $102 +$116 +113%
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Jun 14 $31 −$30 -98%
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 40¢ $218 2d
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $31 2d
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 18¢ $102 2d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $103 2d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $21 2d
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $31 2d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 8¢ $103 2d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 5¢ $103 2d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $205 2d
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? BUY Yes 18¢ $10 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $566.60 · official $566.60 (match) · 12 history records