Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T18:03:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
04 0x046b…00e1 crypto 138 markets active 2h ago coverage 64d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$53 (+6%) realized +$50 · open +$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR51%break-even
Win rate52%67W / 63L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$6per market
Trades / day2.5pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit81%portable
Net worth$134now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$23
7 days+$31
14 days+$13
30 days+$13
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 72% +$44
other 18% $0
sports 8% +$7
politics 1% −$11
tech 1% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +51%
net ROI/market (all)-13.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 65 +7.3% -2.9% 60% 60% +6.1%
≤30d 81 -4.6% -13.6% 52% 52% -3.9%
≤90d 130 -4.7% -13.8% 52% 51% -5.7%
all 130 -4.7% -13.8% 52% 51% -5.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.8% 51% -5.7%
10% -22.1% 49% -14.7%
15% -29.6% 47% -22.9%
20% -36.5% 35% -30.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 24% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt +4% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -17% → late +7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$5 · ×1.04 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.1 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

64d coverage
Net worth$134
Realized+$50
Unrealized+$3
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses67 / 63
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions7
Markets (closed)130 / 138
History coverage64d
Avg bet$6
Trades / day2.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit81%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 130 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-25? Yes 90¢ 90¢ $37 $37 −$0 (-1%)
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-25? Yes 83¢ 83¢ $25 $25 −$0 (-0%)
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Yes 62¢ 61¢ $25 $25 −$0 (-1%)
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Yes 51¢ 49¢ $20 $19 −$1 (-3%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 6¢ $10 $14 +$4 (+41%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 14¢ 14¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+1%)
Spread: Netherlands (-2.5) Netherlands 49¢ 48¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 54 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $10 +$8 +76%
Czechia vs. Mexico: Both Teams to Score Jun 25 $1 $0 +46%
Czechia vs. Mexico: O/U 2.5 Jun 25 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $5 −$4 -82%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $5 +$2 +32%
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) Jun 25 $4 +$4 +93%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $10 +$2 +20%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $3 +$1 +40%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $6 +$3 +48%
Colombia vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score Jun 24 $2 +$1 +55%
Colombia vs. DR Congo: DR Congo O/U 0.5 Jun 24 $2 +$1 +40%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $3 +$3 +93%
Spread: Croatia (-1.5) Jun 23 $4 −$2 -47%
England vs. Ghana: Ghana O/U 0.5 Jun 23 $4 +$3 +67%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: Uzbekistan O/U 0.5 Jun 23 $5 +$3 +62%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $6 +$3 +48%
Norway vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 23 $2 +$1 +73%
Spread: France (-2.5) Jun 23 $2 +$2 +76%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $2 +$1 +44%
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $4 −$4 -98%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $3 −$3 -100%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Both Teams to Score Jun 21 $7 +$3 +44%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 21 $2 +$2 +79%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $2 −$2 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 21 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 21 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 21 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 21 $3 +$3 +96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 21 $1 $0 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 21 $2 +$2 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 21 $3 +$3 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 21 $2 −$1 -27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 21 $2 +$1 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 21 $1 $0 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 21 $1 −$1 -94%
Tunisia vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 21 $2 +$2 +101%
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 Jun 21 $1 −$1 -99%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score Jun 21 $1 +$1 +60%
Spread: Ecuador (-1.5) Jun 21 $1 +$1 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 21 $1 −$1 -96%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $1 $0 +48%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $2 +$1 +70%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 20? Jun 20 $1 +$2 +217%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 20 $1 +$1 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 20 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 20 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 20 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 20 $4 −$4 -96%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $2 −$2 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 20 $2 −$2 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 3.5 AND Netherlands to score first vs. Tu BUY 48¢ $1 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 62¢ $25 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 51¢ $20 1h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 83¢ $25 1h
Spread: Netherlands (-2.5) BUY Netherlands 49¢ $4 1h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 90¢ $37 1h
Czechia vs. Mexico: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 42¢ $1 15h
Czechia vs. Mexico: Both Teams to Score BUY No 68¢ $1 15h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 10¢ $1 15h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 53¢ $5 16h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 56¢ $10 16h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 75¢ $5 27h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 71¢ $3 27h
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) BUY Brazil 51¢ $4 27h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 83¢ $10 27h
Colombia vs. DR Congo: DR Congo O/U 0.5 BUY Under 71¢ $2 39h
Colombia vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score BUY No 64¢ $2 39h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 67¢ $6 39h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 51¢ $3 42h
Spread: Croatia (-1.5) SELL Croatia 23¢ $2 42h
England vs. Ghana: Ghana O/U 0.5 BUY Under 59¢ $4 2d
Spread: Croatia (-1.5) BUY Croatia 42¢ $4 2d
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: Uzbekistan O/U 0.5 BUY Under 61¢ $5 2d
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 67¢ $6 2d
Norway vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 57¢ $2 3d
Spread: France (-2.5) BUY France 56¢ $2 3d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 69¢ $2 3d
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 35¢ $4 3d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 69¢ $3 4d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 70¢ $2 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $133.93 · official $134.93 (match) · 242 history records