Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T03:33:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
04 0x046b…e3ab crypto 124 markets active 0h ago coverage 3d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (176 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$227 (-3%) realized −$185 · open −$42
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -21% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -39% what you keep after slip
Net edge-39%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate52%63W / 58L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$54per market
Trades / day175.8pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$61now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$294
world 0% −$10
other 0% −$1
sports 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (176 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-28.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 121 -20.6% -28.2% 52% 40% -13.4%
≤30d 121 -20.6% -28.2% 52% 40% -13.4%
≤90d 121 -20.6% -28.2% 52% 40% -13.4%
all 121 -20.6% -28.2% 52% 40% -13.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover175.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -28.2% 40% -13.4%
10% ← realistic here -35.1% 28% -21.7%
15% -41.3% 21% -29.3%
20% -47.1% 14% -36.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 21% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
24% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -21% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -16% → late -25% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$12 vs −$17 · ×0.68 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.73 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$61
Realized−$185
Unrealized−$42
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses63 / 58
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions3
Markets (closed)121 / 124
History coverage3d
Avg bet$54
Trades / day175.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 121 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Up 39¢ 22¢ $100 $58 −$42 (-42%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 20¢ 18¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-7%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+7%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 51 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 19 $460 +$54 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 19 $209 −$4 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 19 $106 −$106 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 19 $115 −$110 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 19 $259 +$47 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 19 $267 +$32 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 19 $105 +$24 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 19 $104 +$21 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 19 $163 +$9 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 19 $148 +$18 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 19 $208 −$11 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 19 $519 +$64 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 19 $228 +$12 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 19 $52 −$10 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 19 $32 −$30 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 19 $207 +$1 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 19 $429 +$40 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 19 $25 −$3 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 19 $84 +$7 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 19 $82 +$5 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 19 $100 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 18 $43 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 18 $72 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 18 $208 +$6 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 18 $43 −$41 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 18 $52 +$5 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 18 $43 +$26 +61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 18 $12 −$2 -15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 17 $141 +$86 +60%
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 17 $25 −$23 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 17 $42 −$18 -43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 17 $52 +$15 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 17 $36 −$36 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 17 $43 −$39 -91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 17 $55 +$8 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 17 $21 −$20 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 17 $9 +$3 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 17 $6 −$6 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 17 $104 −$29 -28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 17 $104 −$100 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 17 $104 +$21 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 17 $17 +$9 +51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 17 $41 +$2 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 17 $21 −$20 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 17 $49 +$22 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 17 $45 +$10 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 17 $21 −$21 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 17 $46 −$44 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 17 $89 +$1 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET BUY Up 39¢ $104 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET SELL Up 37¢ $103 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET BUY Up 34¢ $105 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET SELL Down 76¢ $112 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET BUY Down 67¢ $102 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET SELL Down 69¢ $108 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET BUY Down 63¢ $103 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET SELL Down 75¢ $201 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $50 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET BUY Down 58¢ $103 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET SELL Down 62¢ $94 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET BUY Down 64¢ $103 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET SELL Down 33¢ $90 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET BUY Down 35¢ $105 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET SELL Down 37¢ $115 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET BUY Down 31¢ $105 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET BUY Up 19¢ $106 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET BUY Up 32¢ $115 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET SELL Up 45¢ $148 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET BUY Up 29¢ $105 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET SELL Up 63¢ $158 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET BUY Up 58¢ $154 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET SELL Up 96¢ $177 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET BUY Up 88¢ $163 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET SELL Up 53¢ $123 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET BUY Up 42¢ $104 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET SELL Up 45¢ $2 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET SELL Up 45¢ $32 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET SELL Up 45¢ $2 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET SELL Up 45¢ $34 42m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $60.65 · official $93.99 · 555 history records