Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T11:41:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
04 0x0471…64e8 sports 30 markets active 2h ago coverage 17d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$8 (+2%) realized +$28 · open −$20
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -22% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate30%3W / 7L
Drawdown98%max
Avg bet$13per market
Trades / day2.2pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit63%portable
Net worth$273now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$5
7 days+$27
14 days+$26
30 days+$27
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 65% −$26
sports 23% +$68
crypto 8% −$19
tech 4% −$15
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)-29.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +29.2% +16.9% 50% 50% +87.7%
≤30d 10 -21.6% -29.1% 30% 30% +20.5%
≤90d 10 -21.6% -29.1% 30% 30% +20.5%
all 10 -21.6% -29.1% 30% 30% +20.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -29.1% 30% +20.5%
10% -35.8% 30% +9.0%
15% -42.0% 30% -1.5%
20% -47.7% 30% -11.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 47% · top 2 91% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +33% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -22% · $-wt +33% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$23 vs −$6 · ×3.87 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.66 per $1 lost it wins $1.66
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

17d coverage
Net worth$273
Realized+$28
Unrealized−$20
Win rate (resolved)30%
Wins / losses3 / 7
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions20
Markets (closed)10 / 30
History coverage17d
Avg bet$13
Trades / day2.2
Drawdown98%
Kalshi-fit63%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 20 History 10 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 3¢ 2¢ $148 $130 −$18 (-12%)
Will Norway win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 24¢ 24¢ $30 $29 −$1 (-2%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $10 $13 +$3 (+34%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 5¢ $10 $12 +$2 (+23%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+3%)
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-14%)
Will Ecuador reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 43¢ 34¢ $10 $8 −$2 (-20%)
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Yes 29¢ 28¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-2%)
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Yes 26¢ 26¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-2%)
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Yes 24¢ 24¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-2%)
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Yes 21¢ 20¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-2%)
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? Yes 20¢ 20¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-2%)
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Yes 18¢ 18¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-3%)
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? Yes 17¢ 16¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-3%)
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Yes 17¢ 16¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-3%)
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Yes 13¢ 12¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-4%)
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 26¢ 20¢ $6 $5 −$1 (-21%)
Will DR Congo reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 12¢ 9¢ $6 $4 −$2 (-25%)
Will Brazil advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 3¢ 4¢ $3 $4 +$1 (+34%)
Will Norway reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Yes 7¢ 6¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-21%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -97%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $20 +$32 +158%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $15 +$30 +197%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T? Jun 06 $15 −$15 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 2, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 02 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 02 $4 −$4 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 02 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 02 $11 −$11 -100%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 31 $5 +$7 +129%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET May 30 $5 −$5 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $5 1h
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $5 1h
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $5 1h
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $5 1h
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $5 1h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $5 1h
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY Yes 18¢ $5 1h
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $5 1h
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? BUY Yes 13¢ $5 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 6¢ $5 44h
Will DR Congo reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 12¢ $6 6d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA Wor BUY Yes 26¢ $6 6d
Will Ecuador reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 43¢ $10 6d
Will Brazil advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 3¢ $3 6d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 38¢ $20 6d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Spurs 33¢ $15 7d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T? BUY No 22¢ $15 10d
Will Norway reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? BUY Yes 7¢ $5 13d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 3¢ $91 13d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 3¢ $51 13d
Will Norway win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 24¢ $31 13d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 2, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $1 13d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Down 4¢ $1 13d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Down 6¢ $1 13d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Down 10¢ $1 13d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Down 18¢ $1 13d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 2¢ $1 13d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Down 6¢ $5 13d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Down 26¢ $5 13d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 3¢ $10 15d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $273.41 · official $273.48 (match) · 55 history records