Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T13:41:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
04 0x0474…fbd4 sports 148 markets active 1h ago coverage 72d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$13 (-0%) realized −$13 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate50%74W / 74L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$29per market
Trades / day4.9pace
Fees−$34est.
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2
7 days+$2
14 days−$98
30 days+$9
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 69% +$117
crypto 18% −$138
other 13% −$41
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-17.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +9.5% -1.0% 100% 50% -4.4%
≤30d 43 -15.7% -23.8% 37% 33% -8.1%
≤90d 148 -9.0% -17.7% 50% 41% -10.5%
all 148 -9.0% -17.7% 50% 41% -10.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.7% 41% -10.5%
10% -25.6% 32% -19.0%
15% -32.8% 26% -26.9%
20% -39.4% 19% -34.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 17% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
19% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -14% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$12 vs −$13 · ×0.94 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.94 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

72d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$13
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses74 / 74
Est. fees paid−$34
Open positions0
Markets (closed)148 / 148
History coverage72d
Avg bet$29
Trades / day4.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 148 Trades
no open positions (44 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 26 $5 +$1 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 26 $25 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 19 $5 +$8 +152%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 19 $5 +$10 +198%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -97%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $2 −$1 -40%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 17 $1 +$1 +56%
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 0 Jordan? Jun 17 $7 −$5 -72%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -93%
Exact Score: France 0 - 0 Senegal? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: France 1 - 0 Senegal? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -98%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 16 $34 −$33 -98%
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs Jun 16 $6 −$6 -98%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $28 −$12 -43%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $5 +$9 +172%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 15 $16 −$15 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +6%
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $44 −$43 -99%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $40 +$23 +57%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $40 +$67 +168%
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $20 +$59 +291%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $91 −$90 -99%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $56 +$60 +108%
Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees Jun 13 $20 −$3 -17%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $59 −$58 -99%
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 12 $30 −$3 -12%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $51 +$81 +158%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 12 $30 +$21 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 11 $5 −$5 -95%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 08 $30 −$30 -99%
Chicago White Sox vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 08 $30 +$14 +48%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 08 $31 +$60 +197%
Dota 2: 4ikibamboni vs Nande+4 (BO3) - European Pro League Group B Jun 08 $40 −$40 -99%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 06 $10 +$6 +57%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 2 Apr 23 $174 −$100 -57%
LoL: Ninjas in Pyjamas vs Bilibili Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend Apr 23 $77 −$77 -100%
LoL: Gen.G vs DN SOOPers (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 Apr 23 $163 +$14 +8%
Rockets vs. Lakers Apr 23 $10 +$9 +92%
LoL: Ninjas in Pyjamas vs Anyone's Legend - Game 1 Winner Apr 23 $23 +$2 +8%
LoL: Ninjas in Pyjamas vs Anyone's Legend (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend Apr 23 $10 +$5 +50%
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs Team WE - Game 2 Winner Apr 23 $13 +$4 +34%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET BUY Up 86¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET BUY Up 38¢ $5 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET BUY Up 32¢ $5 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Down 59¢ $5 8d
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $5 9d
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 8¢ $1 9d
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? SELL Yes 39¢ $2 9d
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 12¢ $2 9d
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 0 Jordan? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 9d
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 0 Jordan? BUY Yes 25¢ $5 9d
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $1 9d
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 0 Jordan? SELL Yes 15¢ $2 9d
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 9d
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 0 Jordan? BUY Yes 15¢ $2 10d
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? BUY Yes 13¢ $5 10d
Exact Score: France 0 - 0 Senegal? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 10d
Exact Score: France 1 - 0 Senegal? BUY Yes 14¢ $1 10d
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $5 10d
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 10d
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks BUY Los Angeles Angels 31¢ $23 10d
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs BUY Colorado Rockies 1¢ $1 10d
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs BUY Colorado Rockies 26¢ $5 10d
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks BUY Los Angeles Angels 39¢ $10 10d
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 17¢ $8 10d
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 16¢ $15 10d
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $14 10d
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 20¢ $19 10d
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 36¢ $5 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 383 history records