Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T20:35:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
04 0x0478…624f crypto 1274 markets active 0h ago coverage 51d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 51d only
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$1,077 (+2%) realized +$1,059 · open +$18
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +13% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate83%1061W / 212L
Drawdown49%max
Avg bet$42per market
Trades / day45.8pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$31now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$211
7 days−$28
14 days+$161
30 days+$502
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$894
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)+1.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 108 -4.2% -13.3% 73% 42% -10.1%
≤30d 784 +2.8% -7.0% 86% 20% -8.3%
≤90d 1273 +12.6% +1.8% 83% 25% -8.1%
all 1273 +12.6% +1.8% 83% 25% -8.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover45.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +1.8% 25% -8.1%
10% ← realistic here -7.9% 16% -16.9%
15% -16.8% 12% -24.9%
20% -25.0% 10% -32.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 2% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
68% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +13% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +23% → late +2% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$20 · ×0.24 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.21 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

51d coverage
Net worth$31
Realized+$1,059
Unrealized+$18
Win rate (resolved)83%
Wins / losses1061 / 212
Open positions1
Markets (closed)1273 / 1274
History coverage51d ⚠
Avg bet$42
Trades / day45.8
Drawdown49%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 1273 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Up 21¢ 50¢ $13 $31 +$18 (+140%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 156 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Jun 21 $61 +$3 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 21 $49 +$2 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 21 $65 +$3 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 21 $44 +$6 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 21 $65 +$3 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 21 $41 +$13 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 21 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 21 $13 −$13 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 21 $37 −$36 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 21 $56 −$56 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 21 $6 +$13 +212%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 21 $30 +$20 +64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 21 $13 −$13 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 21 $20 +$53 +270%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 21 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 21 $62 +$3 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Jun 21 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Jun 21 $20 −$19 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 21 $54 +$6 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET Jun 21 $47 +$3 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 21 $24 −$23 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET Jun 21 $42 +$11 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 21 $54 +$9 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 21 $49 −$49 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 21 $46 −$45 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 21 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 21 $67 +$3 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 21 $15 −$15 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 21 $28 +$3 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 21 $55 +$3 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 20 $47 +$21 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 20 $56 +$4 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 20 $60 +$3 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 20 $51 +$3 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 20 $28 −$27 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 20 $17 +$40 +240%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 20 $32 −$32 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 20 $52 +$16 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 20 $26 −$25 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 20 $60 +$5 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 20 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 20 $32 +$17 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 20 $56 +$11 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 20 $35 −$35 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 20 $40 −$39 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 20 $52 +$3 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 20 $16 −$15 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 20 $31 +$2 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 20 $23 +$2 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 20 $47 −$46 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET BUY Up 21¢ $14 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $61 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $49 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $65 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET BUY Up 88¢ $29 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET BUY Up 88¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET BUY Up 88¢ $14 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $65 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET BUY Down 75¢ $41 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET BUY Down 10¢ $7 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Down 18¢ $13 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET BUY Down 72¢ $37 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Down 88¢ $7 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Down 89¢ $19 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Down 90¢ $19 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Down 88¢ $12 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 32¢ $6 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Up 61¢ $30 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Down 17¢ $13 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Down 27¢ $9 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Down 27¢ $1 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Down 27¢ $1 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Down 27¢ $1 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Down 27¢ $4 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Down 27¢ $1 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Down 27¢ $1 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET BUY Down 15¢ $11 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET BUY Down 15¢ $0 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $62 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET BUY Down 19¢ $12 14h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $31.31 · official $31.31 (match) · 3500 history records