Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T12:39:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
04 0x0479…8177 crypto 902 markets active 0h ago coverage 8d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (126 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$182 (+4%) realized +$179 · open +$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR72%break-even
Win rate76%684W / 217L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day125.7pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$30now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$110
7 days−$79
14 days−$58
30 days−$58
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 83% −$65
other 15% −$46
sports 1% +$56
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (126 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +72%
net ROI/market (all)-8.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 803 +0.9% -8.7% 76% 72% -11.5%
≤30d 901 +1.4% -8.2% 76% 72% -10.8%
≤90d 901 +1.4% -8.2% 76% 72% -10.8%
all 901 +1.4% -8.2% 76% 72% -10.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover125.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -8.2% 72% -10.8%
10% ← realistic here -17.0% 44% -19.3%
15% -25.0% 24% -27.1%
20% -32.4% 12% -34.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +3% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$5 · ×0.3 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.94 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

8d coverage
Net worth$30
Realized+$179
Unrealized+$3
Win rate (resolved)76%
Wins / losses684 / 217
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)901 / 902
History coverage8d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day125.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 901 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Up 76¢ 66¢ $25 $22 −$3 (-12%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Down 0¢ 50¢ $0 $5 +$5 (+0%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Down 53¢ 34¢ $5 $3 −$2 (-37%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 114 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 23 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 23 $30 −$25 -82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 23 $31 −$5 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 23 $31 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 23 $10 +$4 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 23 $10 +$2 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 23 $31 +$3 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 23 $156 −$118 -75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 23 $31 −$5 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 23 $5 +$1 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 23 $5 +$1 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 23 $30 +$6 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 23 $31 +$14 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 23 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 23 $5 +$2 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 23 $5 +$2 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 23 $10 +$4 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 23 $36 +$3 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 23 $10 −$5 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 23 $30 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 23 $5 +$2 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 23 $10 +$2 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 23 $31 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 23 $10 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 23 $30 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 23 $10 −$2 -22%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 23 $5 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 23 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 23 $5 +$1 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 23 $5 +$1 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 23 $30 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 23 $5 +$2 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 23 $5 +$2 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 23 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 23 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 23 $5 +$1 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 23 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 23 $5 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 23 $5 +$1 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 23 $5 +$1 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 23 $10 +$3 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 23 $10 +$5 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 23 $10 +$3 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 23 $5 +$2 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 23 $10 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 23 $10 +$3 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 23 $10 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 23 $5 +$2 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 23 $10 −$5 -50%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $10 +$12 +119%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET BUY Up 76¢ $25 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $5 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Up 87¢ $25 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET SELL Up 43¢ $4 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Down 82¢ $25 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $5 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $5 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET SELL Down 98¢ $11 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET SELL Down 98¢ $20 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET BUY Down 78¢ $25 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $5 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET SELL Up 6¢ $1 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET SELL Down 96¢ $9 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET SELL Down 96¢ $22 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET BUY Down 79¢ $25 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $5 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET SELL Up 96¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET BUY Up 86¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET SELL Up 85¢ $8 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET SELL Up 70¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET SELL Up 70¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $24 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Down 74¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $5 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $29.99 · official $29.75 (match) · 1847 history records