Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T06:15:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
04 0x047a…d400 crypto 16 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$0 (+0%) realized +$0 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR62%break-even
Win rate62%10W / 6L
Drawdown26%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day23.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$16
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +62%
net ROI/market (all)-13.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 16 -4.4% -13.5% 62% 62% +15.4%
≤30d 16 -4.4% -13.5% 62% 62% +15.4%
≤90d 16 -4.4% -13.5% 62% 62% +15.4%
all 16 -4.4% -13.5% 62% 62% +15.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover23.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -13.5% 62% +15.4%
10% ← realistic here -21.8% 56% +4.4%
15% -29.3% 50% -5.7%
20% -36.2% 19% -14.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 42% · top 2 56% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +28% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt +28% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -32% → late +23% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$2 · ×1.39 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×2.31 per $1 lost it wins $2.31
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$0
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses10 / 6
Open positions0
Markets (closed)16 / 16
History coverage1d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day23.0
Drawdown26%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 16 Trades
no open positions (5 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 15 $4 +$2 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 15 $3 +$1 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 15 $8 +$12 +146%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 15 $8 +$3 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$4 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 15 $4 +$2 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 15 $3 +$1 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$2 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 15 $3 +$1 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 15 $2 +$1 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -96%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $6 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Up 67¢ $4 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET BUY Up 71¢ $3 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET BUY Down 39¢ $8 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $3 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET BUY Up 74¢ $8 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET BUY Down 42¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET BUY Down 65¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET BUY Down 66¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET BUY Down 73¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET BUY Down 69¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET BUY Up 22¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET BUY Down 44¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET BUY Down 72¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET BUY Down 68¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET BUY Down 38¢ $1 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 40 history records