Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T21:24:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

04
0x0481…d55c
crypto · 473 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$200 -7%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$199 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$2
Realized−$199
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses197 / 274
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)471 / 473
History coverage80d
Avg bet$6
Trades / day12.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 2 History 471 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days−$8
14 days−$40
30 days−$51
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Up 27¢ 28¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+6%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET Up 59¢ 36¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-40%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Up 48¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Down 21¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Up 21¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Down 10¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Down 21¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Down 30¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Up 17¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Down 52¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Down 35¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Down 15¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Down 23¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Up 28¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Down 37¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Down 14¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Up 6¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Down 4¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Down 42¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Up 38¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 9? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Up 21¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Up 43¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Down 24¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Up 43¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 12 $2 +$1 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Jun 12 $3 +$5 +180%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 12 $2 +$1 +85%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 12 $4 −$4 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -95%
Cincinnati Reds vs. San Diego Padres Jun 10 $4 −$4 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 10 $1 +$2 +228%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 10 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 10 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 10 $3 −$3 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 10 $1 +$1 +124%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 10 $2 +$3 +148%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Jun 10 $2 +$1 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 10 $5 +$6 +111%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 10 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 10 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 05 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 05 $4 −$4 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 05 $3 +$1 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 05 $3 −$1 -49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 05 $8 −$8 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 05 $5 −$4 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 05 $4 −$4 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 05 $2 +$2 +81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 05 $2 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 05 $1 $0 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 05 $3 +$3 +110%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Jun 05 $4 +$3 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 05 $1 +$1 +91%
XRP Up or Down - June 5, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 05 $1 +$1 +106%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 03 $3 −$3 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 03 $4 −$4 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 03 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 03 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 03 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 03 $1 +$1 +124%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 03 $2 +$2 +122%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 03 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 03 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 03 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 02 $1 $0 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET May 27 $4 −$4 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET May 27 $14 −$1 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET May 27 $4 −$4 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET May 27 $3 −$2 -96%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 94% −$197
sports 6% −$7
other 0% +$4
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Up 27¢ $1 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $1 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Up 88¢ $1 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET BUY Up 59¢ $1 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET SELL Down 97¢ $8 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET BUY Down 33¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET SELL Up 96¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET BUY Up 10¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET BUY Up 23¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET BUY Up 41¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Down 17¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Down 26¢ $1 1h
Cincinnati Reds vs. San Diego Padres BUY Cincinnati Reds 27¢ $4 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET BUY Up 29¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET BUY Down 26¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET BUY Down 37¢ $4 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Up 37¢ $2 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Up 11¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Up 37¢ $2 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 59¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Down 43¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Down 35¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET BUY Up 35¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET BUY Up 43¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET BUY Up 43¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET BUY Up 23¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET SELL Down 80¢ $3 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET BUY Down 46¢ $2 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET BUY Down 24¢ $1 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-18.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 21 -14.9% -23.0% 38% 38% -24.3%
≤30d 60 -24.7% -31.9% 37% 37% -39.6%
≤90d 471 -10.2% -18.8% 42% 39% -16.1%
all 471 -10.2% -18.8% 42% 39% -16.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover12.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.8% 39% -16.1%
10% -26.6% 35% -24.1%
15% -33.7% 30% -31.4%
20% -40.2% 25% -38.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.66 · official $1.58 (match) · 1177 history records