Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T06:06:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
04 0x0482…f72a crypto 702 markets active 2h ago coverage 99d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 98d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$2,305 (-6%) realized −$2,222 · open −$83
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -16% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -35% what you keep after slip
Net edge-35%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate48%335W / 366L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$59per market
Trades / day26.0pace
Fees−$81est.
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$760
7 days−$390
14 days−$297
30 days−$129
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 73% −$160
other 15% −$547
sports 11% −$54
finance 0% −$25
weather 0% −$2
world 0% −$149
tech 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-23.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 40 -11.1% -19.5% 38% 38% -14.9%
≤30d 294 -7.4% -16.2% 38% 37% -10.3%
≤90d 622 -17.1% -25.0% 45% 45% -13.1%
all 701 -15.6% -23.7% 48% 48% -11.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover26.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -23.7% 48% -11.4%
10% ← realistic here -31.0% 47% -19.9%
15% -37.6% 34% -27.6%
20% -43.8% 10% -34.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -16% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -20% → late -12% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.6 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$41 vs −$40 · ×1.03 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.94 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

99d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$2,222
Unrealized−$83
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses335 / 366
Est. fees paid−$81
Open positions1
Markets (closed)701 / 702
History coverage99d ⚠
Avg bet$59
Trades / day26.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 701 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? No 17¢ 0¢ $83 $0 −$83 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $375 +$125 +33%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $250 +$250 +100%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $200 −$200 -100%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $125 −$125 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 2AM ET Jun 20 $140 +$60 +43%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 2AM ET Jun 19 $70 −$70 -100%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $200 −$200 -100%
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 19 $200 −$200 -100%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 19 $150 +$350 +233%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $107 +$393 +365%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 18 $200 −$200 -100%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $205 −$205 -100%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $200 −$200 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 2AM ET Jun 18 $140 +$60 +43%
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Jun 18 $200 +$300 +150%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $118 +$382 +325%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 17 $200 −$200 -100%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $188 −$188 -100%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $158 −$158 -100%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $178 −$178 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 2AM ET Jun 17 $140 +$60 +43%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $200 −$200 -100%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $175 +$325 +186%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $200 +$300 +150%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 15 $50 −$50 -100%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 15 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 15 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? Jun 15 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 15 $200 −$200 -100%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $200 −$200 -100%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $200 −$200 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 2AM ET Jun 15 $140 +$60 +43%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 15 $200 +$300 +150%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $200 +$300 +150%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 2AM ET Jun 14 $280 +$120 +43%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $37 +$212 +567%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 2AM ET Jun 13 $142 −$136 -95%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $36 −$36 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 2AM ET Jun 12 $141 −$139 -99%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $100 +$150 +150%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 12 $100 +$150 +150%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 2AM ET Jun 11 $70 −$70 -100%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-10? Jun 11 $62 −$62 -100%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-10? Jun 11 $50 −$50 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 17¢ $10 2h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 17¢ $75 2h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 50¢ $226 8h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 50¢ $18 8h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 50¢ $5 8h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 50¢ $250 9h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 50¢ $1 9h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 25¢ $125 9h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 25¢ $33 13h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 25¢ $76 13h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 25¢ $15 13h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 25¢ $2 13h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 25¢ $1 13h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 2AM ET BUY Down 35¢ $70 23h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 2AM ET BUY Up 35¢ $32 24h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 2AM ET BUY Up 35¢ $38 24h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 40¢ $200 25h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 20¢ $5 31h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 20¢ $12 31h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 20¢ $1 31h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 20¢ $32 31h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 20¢ $50 31h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 20¢ $38 34h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 20¢ $1 34h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 20¢ $17 34h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 20¢ $34 34h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 20¢ $0 34h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 20¢ $1 34h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 20¢ $1 34h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 20¢ $2 34h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.25 · official $0.25 (match) · 3500 history records