Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T16:41:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
04 0x0483…0b04 sports 45 markets active 13h ago coverage 110d
RISKYcopy with care Fresh edge
Total PnL +$64 (+20%) realized +$66 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +45% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +31% what you keep after slip
Net edge+31%after slip
Net WR49%break-even
Win rate54%19W / 16L
Drawdown59%max
Avg bet$7per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$46now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$20
7 days+$26
14 days+$26
30 days+$45
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 30% +$51
politics 23% −$6
world 19% −$18
sports 16% +$36
economics 5% +$12
tech 3% −$11
culture 3% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +49%
net ROI/market (all)+31.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 +107.0% +87.3% 64% 64% +71.2%
≤30d 14 +97.8% +79.0% 64% 64% +59.6%
≤90d 25 +68.3% +52.3% 56% 56% +32.3%
all 35 +45.3% +31.4% 54% 49% +12.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +31.4% 49% +12.6%
10% +18.9% 49% +1.8%
15% +7.4% 49% -8.0%
20% -3.1% 43% -17.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 37% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +46% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +45% · $-wt +24% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +14% → late +74% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$6 · ×1.38 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.64 per $1 lost it wins $1.64
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

110d coverage
Net worth$46
Realized+$66
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses19 / 16
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions10
Markets (closed)35 / 45
History coverage110d
Avg bet$7
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown59%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 10 History 35 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes 42¢ 52¢ $10 $12 +$2 (+23%)
Will the Republicans win the Ohio governor race in 2026? Yes 55¢ 54¢ $8 $8 −$0 (-3%)
Fed rate cut by December 2026 meeting? No 77¢ 73¢ $7 $7 −$0 (-5%)
Will the Democrats win the South Carolina Senate race in 2026? No 81¢ 80¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Will the Democrats win the Ohio Senate race in 2026? Yes 57¢ 55¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-4%)
Will Kroger Q1 identical sales without fuel growth be below 1%? No 66¢ 64¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-2%)
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 Over 21¢ 20¢ $3 $2 −$0 (-7%)
Will the Republican Party hold 47 or fewer Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections? Yes 27¢ 28¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+2%)
Will Deep Fission's market cap be between $1.5B and $1.75B at market close on IPO day? Yes 48¢ 6¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-89%)
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? No 23¢ 1¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-94%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $3 +$3 +124%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $2 +$7 +307%
Spread: Sweden (-1.5) Jun 15 $2 +$7 +276%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $2 +$5 +206%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $2 +$3 +124%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $2 +$9 +388%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $2 +$3 +152%
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.5T and $2.0T at market close on Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Will annual inflation be 4.3% in May? Jun 10 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 English Premier League? May 20 $10 +$6 +59%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026? May 19 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Trump post "Baby" on Truth Social this week? May 18 $10 +$23 +233%
Will Trump visit China by April 30? May 02 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Anthropic have the #3 AI model at the end of April 2026 (Style Co May 01 $10 −$10 -100%
Will "Palantir" be said during the next episode of the All-In Podcast? Apr 26 $10 +$4 +43%
Will South Korea GDP growth in Q1 2026 be between 1.0% and 1.4%? Apr 23 $10 +$12 +127%
DeepSeek V4 released by March 31? Apr 07 $10 −$10 -100%
Will SOFR hit 3.76% (High) between March 1 and March 31? Apr 07 $10 +$30 +300%
Will Zelenskyy post 180-199 posts from March 27 to April 3, 2026? Apr 07 $10 +$32 +335%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Mar 24 $10 $0 -2%
Will Manchester City win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Mar 23 $10 +$4 +35%
Will Israel take military action in Gaza on March 19, 2026? Mar 23 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Trump’s approval rating be between 40.5 and 40.9 on March 20, 202 Mar 23 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Russia enter Svitle by March 31? Mar 18 $10 +$6 +60%
DeepSeek V4 released by March 15? Mar 17 $10 −$10 -100%
X Money released by April 3, 2026? Mar 16 $10 +$6 +66%
Will One Battle After Another win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awa Mar 13 $10 $0 -5%
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? Mar 12 $10 $0 +3%
Will Russia enter Shevchenko by March 31? Mar 11 $10 +$5 +57%
Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026? Mar 10 $10 $0 -2%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? Mar 10 $10 $0 +0%
Will Jasmine Crockett be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Texas? Mar 05 $10 −$10 -100%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31? Mar 05 $10 −$10 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 21¢ $3 12h
Will the Republicans win the Ohio governor race in 2026? BUY Yes 55¢ $9 21h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 25¢ $3 23h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 44¢ $3 27h
Will the Democrats win the Ohio Senate race in 2026? BUY Yes 57¢ $5 42h
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 24¢ $2 2d
Spread: Sweden (-1.5) BUY Sweden 26¢ $2 2d
Germany vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 32¢ $2 2d
Will Kroger Q1 identical sales without fuel growth be below 1%? BUY No 66¢ $5 2d
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 20¢ $2 2d
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 44¢ $2 3d
Will the Democrats win the South Carolina Senate race in 2026? BUY No 81¢ $5 3d
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 39¢ $2 4d
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.5T and $2.0T at market close on BUY Yes 19¢ $1 4d
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 31¢ $2 4d
Fed rate cut by December 2026 meeting? BUY No 77¢ $7 5d
Will the Republican Party hold 47 or fewer Senate seats after the 2026 BUY Yes 27¢ $2 15d
Will Deep Fission's market cap be between $1.5B and $1.75B at market c BUY Yes 48¢ $2 16d
Will annual inflation be 4.3% in May? BUY Yes 43¢ $6 16d
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? BUY No 23¢ $1 17d
Will Trump post "Baby" on Truth Social this week? BUY No 30¢ $10 33d
Will "Palantir" be said during the next episode of the All-In Podcast? BUY No 70¢ $10 54d
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential ele BUY Yes 42¢ $10 69d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026? BUY No 76¢ $10 69d
Will Zelenskyy post 180-199 posts from March 27 to April 3, 2026? BUY No 23¢ $10 84d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 65¢ $10 84d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 66¢ $10 85d
Will Anthropic have the #3 AI model at the end of April 2026 (Style Co BUY No 49¢ $10 85d
Will Manchester City win the 2025–26 English Premier League? SELL No 88¢ $13 85d
Will Israel take military action in Gaza on March 19, 2026? BUY No 30¢ $10 90d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $45.61 · official $45.61 (match) · 84 history records