Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T01:50:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
04 0x0484…e36c crypto 215 markets active 0h ago coverage 2d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (199 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$388 (-13%) realized −$367 · open −$21
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -21% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -39% what you keep after slip
Net edge-39%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate36%78W / 136L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$14per market
Trades / day199.2pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$4now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 93% −$482
other 4% −$54
sports 3% −$44
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (199 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-28.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 214 -21.3% -28.8% 36% 35% -29.1%
≤30d 214 -21.3% -28.8% 36% 35% -29.1%
≤90d 214 -21.3% -28.8% 36% 35% -29.1%
all 214 -21.3% -28.8% 36% 35% -29.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover199.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -28.8% 35% -29.1%
10% ← realistic here -35.6% 27% -35.9%
15% -41.9% 25% -42.1%
20% -47.6% 16% -47.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 20% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -22% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -21% · $-wt -22% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -24% → late -19% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$9 · ×0.98 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.56 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$4
Realized−$367
Unrealized−$21
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses78 / 136
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions1
Markets (closed)214 / 215
History coverage2d
Avg bet$14
Trades / day199.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 214 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Down 39¢ 6¢ $25 $4 −$21 (-86%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 119 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 26 $19 +$15 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 26 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 26 $42 +$28 +67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 26 $52 +$73 +139%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 26 $126 +$10 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 26 $31 −$30 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 26 $37 −$35 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 26 $62 −$60 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 26 $65 −$62 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 26 $20 +$66 +330%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 26 $144 +$42 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 26 $63 +$9 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 25 $52 +$37 +72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 25 $21 +$5 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 25 $10 +$2 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 25 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 25 $21 −$20 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 25 $53 −$50 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 25 $73 −$70 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 25 $50 +$58 +116%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 25 $55 −$52 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 25 $53 +$9 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 25 $42 −$30 -73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 25 $41 +$24 +58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 25 $44 −$2 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 25 $33 −$1 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 25 $22 −$21 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 25 $10 +$5 +47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 25 $20 +$3 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 25 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 25 $10 +$2 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 25 $21 +$4 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 25 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 25 $5 +$2 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 25 $10 +$5 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 25 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Jun 25 $5 +$2 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET Jun 25 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 25 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 25 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 25 $2 +$1 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 25 $2 +$1 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 25 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 25 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 25 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET Jun 25 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Jun 25 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Jun 25 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 25 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET BUY Down 24¢ $5 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET BUY Down 46¢ $21 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET SELL Down 76¢ $48 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $31 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET SELL Down 80¢ $2 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET SELL Down 80¢ $22 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET SELL Down 80¢ $4 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET SELL Down 80¢ $1 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET SELL Down 80¢ $3 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET SELL Down 80¢ $1 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET SELL Down 80¢ $0 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Down 43¢ $19 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET BUY Down 59¢ $10 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET BUY Up 8¢ $2 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET SELL Up 52¢ $66 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET BUY Up 29¢ $40 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET SELL Down 85¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET SELL Down 85¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET SELL Down 85¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET SELL Down 85¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET SELL Down 85¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET SELL Down 85¢ $61 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET SELL Down 85¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET SELL Down 85¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET SELL Down 85¢ $14 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET SELL Down 85¢ $34 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET BUY Down 34¢ $52 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET SELL Down 31¢ $51 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET BUY Down 40¢ $73 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET SELL Down 30¢ $84 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3.54 · official $13.19 · 496 history records