Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T15:08:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
04 0x0484…be3f crypto 741 markets active 5d ago coverage 14d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 14d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (88 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$5,994 (+64%) realized +$5,994 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate55%404W / 337L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$13per market
Trades / day87.6pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$13now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 14d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$288
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (88 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-10.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 129 -6.5% -15.4% 52% 40% -14.7%
≤30d 741 -1.6% -10.9% 55% 43% -12.3%
≤90d 741 -1.6% -10.9% 55% 43% -12.3%
all 741 -1.6% -10.9% 55% 43% -12.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover87.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.9% 43% -12.3%
10% ← realistic here -19.5% 33% -20.7%
15% -27.2% 26% -28.3%
20% -34.4% 20% -35.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 16% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
20% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +4% → late -7% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$8 · ×0.75 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.9 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

14d coverage
Net worth$13
Realized+$5,994
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses404 / 337
Open positions0
Markets (closed)741 / 741
History coverage14d ⚠
Avg bet$13
Trades / day87.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 741 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 12 $6 +$1 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 12 $27 +$18 +66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 12 $6 +$1 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 12 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 12 $6 +$2 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 12 $6 +$4 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 12 $6 +$2 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 12 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 12 $14 −$7 -51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 12 $6 +$6 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 12 $18 −$12 -66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 12 $14 −$5 -37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 12 $6 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 12 $6 +$2 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 12 $50 −$10 -21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 12 $12 +$3 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 12 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 12 $32 −$2 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 12 $6 +$1 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 12 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 12 $7 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 12 $18 +$25 +135%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 12 $9 +$26 +280%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 12 $8 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 12 $12 −$5 -42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 12 $18 +$8 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 12 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 12 $27 +$36 +130%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 12 $13 −$6 -44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 12 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 12 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 12 $20 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 12 $6 +$7 +114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 12 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 12 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 12 $18 +$2 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 12 $22 +$16 +72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 12 $6 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 12 $20 −$9 -45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 12 $17 −$5 -29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 12 $31 −$15 -47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 12 $26 +$9 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 12 $7 +$4 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 12 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 12 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 11 $12 +$11 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 11 $24 +$22 +89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 11 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 11 $12 +$2 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 11 $14 −$7 -46%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET BUY Up 81¢ $6 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $12 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET BUY Down 34¢ $8 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET BUY Up 67¢ $6 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET BUY Down 79¢ $6 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET BUY Up 32¢ $6 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET BUY Down 75¢ $6 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Up 61¢ $6 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Up 75¢ $6 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Down 23¢ $6 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Down 84¢ $6 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Up 24¢ $8 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $6 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $6 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Up 65¢ $6 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Up 64¢ $6 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET BUY Up 10¢ $6 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET BUY Down 88¢ $8 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $6 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET BUY Down 70¢ $6 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET BUY Down 73¢ $12 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET BUY Down 79¢ $6 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET BUY Up 33¢ $6 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET BUY Up 24¢ $6 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET BUY Up 38¢ $7 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET BUY Down 75¢ $12 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET BUY Up 80¢ $12 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET BUY Up 27¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET BUY Up 17¢ $9 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $8 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $12.64 · official $12.64 (match) · 3500 history records