Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T14:25:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
04 0x0488…5ab5 world 25 markets active 4d ago coverage 442d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$4 (+1%) realized +$4 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -7% what you keep after slip
Net edge-7%after slip
Net WR8%break-even
Win rate48%12W / 13L
Drawdown25%max
Avg bet$22per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 63% −$1
other 16% $0
crypto 8% $0
politics 7% $0
sports 5% $0
economics 1% +$5
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +8%
net ROI/market (all)-6.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -0.5% -9.9% 67% 0% -9.9%
≤30d 10 +1.5% -8.2% 40% 10% -9.8%
≤90d 10 +1.5% -8.2% 40% 10% -9.8%
all 25 +3.2% -6.6% 48% 8% -8.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.6% 8% -8.9%
10% -15.6% 4% -17.6%
15% -23.7% 4% -25.6%
20% -31.2% 4% -32.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 81% · top 2 88% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
83% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +5% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×2.04 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.06 per $1 lost it wins $3.06
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

442d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$4
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses12 / 13
Open positions0
Markets (closed)25 / 25
History coverage442d
Avg bet$22
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown25%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 25 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 14 $44 −$1 -2%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 14 $70 $0 +0%
Netanyahu out by June 30? Jun 13 $37 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 10 $79 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 09 $33 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 08 $26 −$1 -3%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 06 $18 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 05 $37 $0 -0%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? Jun 04 $1 $0 +19%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 03 $32 $0 +0%
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 17 $2 $0 -0%
Will the Indiana Pacers win the 2025 NBA Finals? Jun 24 $2 $0 +1%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before June? Jun 02 $1 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $93000 and $95000 on May 9? May 10 $2 $0 +2%
Will Scott Stringer win the Democratic Primary for Mayor of New York C Apr 10 $29 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2025 World Series? Apr 09 $29 $0 -0%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2025 NBA Finals? Apr 08 $24 $0 -0%
Will Trump pardon Julian Assange in his first 100 days? Apr 06 $5 $0 +0%
Will Călin Georgescu advance to the Romanian Presidential Election Run Apr 04 $3 $0 +0%
Will FDP be part of the next German government? Apr 04 $2 $0 +0%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Apr 04 $8 +$5 +58%
Will Netherlands win Eurovision 2025? Apr 04 $14 $0 -1%
Will MrBeast buy TikTok before July? Apr 03 $2 $0 +3%
2025 March hottest on record? Apr 03 $17 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 by March 31? Apr 02 $25 $0 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes $7 3d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes $8 4d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $37 4d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $37 4d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $18 4d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $15 4d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $33 4d
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $23 5d
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $14 5d
Netanyahu out by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $37 5d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $37 5d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 93¢ $36 5d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $36 7d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $36 7d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 45¢ $9 9d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 45¢ $24 9d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 45¢ $8 9d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 45¢ $25 9d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 34¢ $2 9d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 34¢ $24 9d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 35¢ $8 9d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 35¢ $9 9d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 35¢ $10 9d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $10 10d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $10 11d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 50¢ $14 12d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 50¢ $4 12d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 50¢ $18 12d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $37 12d
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $37 12d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 92 history records