Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T19:36:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
04 0x0489…ddf7 other 302 markets active 0h ago coverage 78d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable Fading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 77d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$37,840 (-14%) realized −$37,904 · open +$64
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR11%break-even
Win rate66%204W / 105L
Whale WR63%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$886per market
Trades / day43.2pace
Fees−$20est.
Kalshi-fit24%portable
Net worth$984now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 78d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 97% −$7,579
economics 2% +$81
politics 1% +$73
sports 0% +$1
weather 0% +$3
world 0% −$133
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +11%
net ROI/market (all)-5.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 42 -27.3% -34.2% 48% 5% -12.1%
≤30d 158 -9.7% -18.3% 65% 5% -11.0%
≤90d 309 +4.3% -5.6% 66% 11% -13.1%
all 309 +4.3% -5.6% 66% 11% -13.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover43.2 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -5.6% 11% -13.1%
10% -14.6% 7% -21.4%
15% ← realistic here -22.9% 5% -29.0%
20% -30.4% 4% -36.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 45% · top 2 54% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
84% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 63% (≥$560) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +19% → late -10% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
6.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$38 vs −$148 · ×0.26 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.5 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

78d coverage
Net worth$984
Realized−$37,904
Unrealized+$64
Win rate (resolved)66%
Wins / losses204 / 105
Whale WR (big bets)63%
Est. fees paid−$20
Open positions4
Markets (closed)309 / 302
History coverage78d ⚠
Avg bet$886
Trades / day43.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit24%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 309 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? No 92¢ 99¢ $651 $701 +$51 (+8%)
Will Elon Musk post 1080-1119 tweets in June 2026? No 99¢ 99¢ $153 $153 −$0 (-0%)
Will Elon Musk post 840-879 tweets in June 2026? No 98¢ 98¢ $78 $78 +$0 (+0%)
Will Elon Musk post 960-999 tweets in June 2026? Yes 26¢ 35¢ $37 $51 +$13 (+35%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 22 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will White House post 180-199 posts from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 25 $7 −$7 -100%
Will White House post 100-119 posts from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 25 $7 −$7 -100%
Will White House post 140-159 posts from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 25 $7 −$7 -100%
Will the Conservative Party win the most council seat elections in the Jun 25 $0 $0 -100%
Will White House post 40-59 posts from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 25 $7 −$7 -100%
Will White House post 60-79 posts from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 25 $7 −$7 -100%
Will White House post 0-19 posts from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 25 $7 −$7 -100%
Will White House post 80-99 posts from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 25 $7 −$7 -100%
Will the Labour Party win the most council seat elections in the 2026 Jun 25 $0 $0 -100%
Will White House post 20-39 posts from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 25 $7 −$7 -100%
Will White House post 120-139 posts from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 25 $7 −$7 -100%
Will White House post 140-159 posts from June 23 to June 30, 2026? Jun 25 $480 +$6 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Jun 25 $2,565 −$428 -17%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Jun 25 $1,883 −$416 -22%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 25 to June 27, 2026? Jun 25 $279 −$59 -21%
Will White House post 140-159 posts from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Jun 24 $113 +$9 +8%
Will White House post 200+ posts from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Jun 24 $284 +$43 +15%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 22 to June 24, 2026? Jun 23 $621 +$29 +5%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 22 to June 24, 2026? Jun 23 $515 −$41 -8%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Jun 23 $482 +$17 +4%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 22 to June 24, 2026? Jun 23 $1,882 +$24 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 22 to June 24, 2026? Jun 23 $746 −$1 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Jun 23 $425 +$5 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Jun 23 $1,845 +$44 +2%
Will Elon Musk post 880-919 tweets in June 2026? Jun 23 $99 +$12 +12%
Will White House post 160-179 posts from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Jun 23 $64 −$15 -23%
Will Ted Cruz post 60-79 posts from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Jun 23 $99 +$1 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Jun 22 $1,130 −$43 -4%
Will White House post 180-199 posts from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Jun 22 $215 −$41 -19%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Jun 22 $756 +$21 +3%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 20 to June 22, 2026? Jun 22 $351 +$5 +2%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Jun 21 $493 +$6 +1%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 20 to June 22, 2026? Jun 21 $866 +$39 +4%
Will White House post 140-159 posts from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Jun 21 $961 +$39 +4%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Jun 21 $826 −$4 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 18 to June 20, 2026? Jun 20 $2,284 +$9 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 920-959 tweets in June 2026? Jun 20 $92 +$3 +3%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Jun 20 $334 −$37 -11%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 18 to June 20, 2026? Jun 19 $1,092 +$26 +2%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 18 to June 20, 2026? Jun 19 $116 −$1 -1%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 19 $1,040 +$12 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 19 $1,202 +$108 +9%
Will White House post 180-199 posts from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 18 $197 +$3 +2%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 18 $696 +$4 +0%
No change in Bank of England’s interest rates after June 2026 meeting? Jun 18 $32 +$1 +3%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 18 $577 +$32 +6%
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? Jun 17 $48 +$1 +2%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? Jun 17 $667 +$33 +5%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 16 $694 +$5 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? Jun 16 $560 −$49 -9%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Elon Musk post 840-879 tweets in June 2026? BUY No 98¢ $78 19m
Will Elon Musk post 1080-1119 tweets in June 2026? BUY No 99¢ $154 20m
Will White House post 140-159 posts from June 23 to June 30, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $486 47m
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? SELL Yes 53¢ $6 1h
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? SELL Yes 53¢ $3 1h
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? SELL Yes 53¢ $32 1h
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? SELL Yes 53¢ $25 1h
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? SELL Yes 53¢ $10 1h
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? SELL Yes 53¢ $8 1h
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? SELL No 67¢ $54 1h
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? SELL Yes 53¢ $5 1h
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? SELL Yes 53¢ $42 1h
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? SELL Yes 53¢ $22 1h
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY Yes 34¢ $52 1h
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY Yes 34¢ $22 1h
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? SELL No 66¢ $9 1h
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? SELL No 66¢ $24 1h
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY Yes 34¢ $53 1h
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? SELL No 66¢ $66 1h
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY Yes 34¢ $42 1h
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? SELL No 66¢ $66 1h
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY Yes 34¢ $46 1h
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY Yes 34¢ $77 1h
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? SELL Yes 52¢ $82 1h
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? SELL Yes 52¢ $79 1h
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? SELL Yes 53¢ $2 1h
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? SELL Yes 52¢ $130 1h
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? SELL Yes 52¢ $125 1h
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? SELL Yes 53¢ $31 1h
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 25 to June 27, 2026? SELL Yes 37¢ $220 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $983.54 · official $983.54 (match) · 3500 history records