Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T13:33:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
04 0x048c…4b9d crypto 26 markets active 0h ago coverage 4d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$6 (-2%) realized −$4 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate92%23W / 2L
Drawdown62%max
Avg bet$11per market
Trades / day6.6pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$18now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$9
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-11.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 25 -2.0% -11.4% 92% 0% -5.9%
≤30d 25 -2.0% -11.4% 92% 0% -5.9%
≤90d 25 -2.0% -11.4% 92% 0% -5.9%
all 25 -2.0% -11.4% 92% 0% -5.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.4% 0% -5.9%
10% -19.9% 0% -14.9%
15% -27.6% 0% -23.1%
20% -34.7% 0% -30.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 17% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt +4% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -12% → late +7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$3 · ×0.23 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×2.6 per $1 lost it wins $2.6
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$18
Realized−$4
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)92%
Wins / losses23 / 2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)25 / 26
History coverage4d
Avg bet$11
Trades / day6.6
Drawdown62%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 25 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Up 94¢ 85¢ $20 $18 −$2 (-9%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 16 $20 +$1 +7%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 16 $20 +$1 +7%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 16 $20 +$1 +7%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 16 $10 +$1 +5%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 16 $10 +$1 +7%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 16 $10 +$1 +7%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 16 $10 +$1 +7%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 16 $10 +$1 +8%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 16 $10 +$1 +7%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 16 $10 +$1 +7%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 16 $10 +$1 +7%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 16 $10 +$1 +9%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 16 $10 +$1 +6%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 16 $10 +$1 +7%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 16 $10 +$1 +7%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 16 $10 $0 +4%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 16 $10 +$1 +6%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 16 $10 +$1 +6%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 16 $10 $0 +5%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 16 $10 +$1 +8%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 16 $10 +$1 +7%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 16 $10 +$1 +6%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $20 0m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET BUY Down 93¢ $20 10m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET BUY Up 93¢ $20 16m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET BUY Down 93¢ $20 21m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $10 38m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET BUY Down 93¢ $10 44m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET BUY Down 93¢ $10 52m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET BUY Down 93¢ $10 56m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $10 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Up 93¢ $10 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET BUY Down 93¢ $10 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET BUY Up 93¢ $10 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET BUY Up 91¢ $10 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $10 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Down 93¢ $10 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET BUY Up 93¢ $10 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $10 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $10 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $10 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $10 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Down 92¢ $10 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET BUY Down 93¢ $10 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $10 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $5 8h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $1 8h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $5 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $18.14 · official $13.55 · 53 history records