Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T17:49:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
04 0x0491…fba1 crypto 495 markets active 1h ago coverage 47d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 47d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$1,080 (-3%) realized −$1,080 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR51%break-even
Win rate51%254W / 241L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$81per market
Trades / day10.8pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 47d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 85% −$3,721
other 15% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +51%
net ROI/market (all)-15.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 83 +1.8% -7.9% 57% 57% -12.3%
≤30d 295 -3.1% -12.3% 52% 52% -17.5%
≤90d 495 -6.8% -15.7% 51% 51% -17.9%
all 495 -6.8% -15.7% 51% 51% -17.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.7% 51% -17.9%
10% -23.8% 47% -25.8%
15% -31.1% 41% -32.9%
20% -37.9% 33% -39.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -9% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -12% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$52 vs −$71 · ×0.74 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.78 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

47d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$1,080
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses254 / 241
Open positions0
Markets (closed)495 / 495
History coverage47d ⚠
Avg bet$81
Trades / day10.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 495 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jun 17 $103 +$63 +61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 17 $51 +$10 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 17 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 17 $104 −$104 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 17 $52 −$52 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 17 $52 +$72 +138%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Jun 16 $103 +$84 +81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 16 $14 −$14 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jun 16 $103 −$103 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 16 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 16 $25 +$8 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 16 $51 +$20 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 16 $26 +$14 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 16 $26 +$15 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 15 $26 +$27 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 15 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 15 $26 +$27 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 15 $26 +$57 +218%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 15 $26 +$47 +181%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 15 $26 +$20 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 15 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 15 $51 +$16 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 15 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 15 $103 −$103 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 15 $25 +$3 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 15 $103 +$66 +64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 15 $25 +$6 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 15 $26 +$25 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 15 $103 −$103 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 15 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 15 $26 +$15 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 15 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 15 $103 +$75 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 15 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 14 $26 +$25 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 14 $26 +$13 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 14 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 14 $26 +$13 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jun 14 $51 −$51 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 14 $26 +$12 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 14 $104 +$98 +95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 14 $103 −$103 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 14 $51 +$29 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 14 $52 −$52 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 14 $52 −$52 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 14 $26 +$13 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Jun 14 $52 −$52 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 14 $25 +$5 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 14 $26 +$11 +42%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET BUY Down 60¢ $51 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET BUY Down 61¢ $51 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET BUY Down 82¢ $51 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET BUY Down 42¢ $52 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $52 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $52 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $52 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET BUY Up 80¢ $4 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $52 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $52 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET BUY Down 41¢ $14 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $52 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET BUY Down 59¢ $51 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Down 35¢ $26 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Up 75¢ $25 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Up 63¢ $26 28h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET BUY Up 70¢ $51 28h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET BUY Up 61¢ $26 30h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $26 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET BUY Up 37¢ $26 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $26 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET BUY Down 30¢ $26 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET BUY Down 34¢ $26 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $26 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET BUY Down 32¢ $26 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET BUY Down 75¢ $51 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Down 88¢ $25 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET BUY Down 71¢ $26 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $52 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records