Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T17:27:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
04 0x0491…a47f crypto 593 markets active 0h ago coverage 685d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$29,036 (-10%) realized −$29,419 · open +$383
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate79%458W / 124L
Whale WR77%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$479per market
Trades / day3.9pace
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$10,899now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$29
7 days+$12
14 days−$152
30 days+$268
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 55% −$20,818
world 20% +$2,581
other 14% −$3,971
crypto 8% −$6,883
economics 4% −$280
sports 0% +$50
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-10.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 79 -9.2% -17.9% 81% 39% -6.3%
≤30d 426 -1.7% -11.1% 80% 32% -7.3%
≤90d 428 -1.7% -11.1% 80% 32% -7.6%
all 582 -1.4% -10.8% 79% 33% -19.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.8% 33% -19.4%
10% -19.3% 13% -27.1%
15% -27.1% 6% -34.2%
20% -34.3% 4% -40.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
56% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 77% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +3% → late -6% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
3.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$34 vs −$367 · ×0.09 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.34 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

685d coverage
Net worth$10,899
Realized−$29,419
Unrealized+$383
Win rate (resolved)79%
Wins / losses458 / 124
Whale WR (big bets)77%
Open positions11
Markets (closed)582 / 593
History coverage685d
Avg bet$479
Trades / day3.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 11 History 582 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? No 95¢ 99¢ $3,384 $3,559 +$175 (+5%)
Trump removed via 25th Amendment before 2027? No 90¢ 94¢ $2,250 $2,362 +$112 (+5%)
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? No 94¢ 94¢ $2,257 $2,261 +$4 (+0%)
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? No 82¢ 90¢ $1,230 $1,358 +$128 (+10%)
Human moon landing in 2026? No 96¢ 97¢ $480 $485 +$5 (+1%)
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? No 82¢ 90¢ $328 $362 +$34 (+10%)
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? No 93¢ 93¢ $238 $238 +$0 (+0%)
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No 50¢ 85¢ $55 $93 +$38 (+70%)
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No 50¢ 84¢ $55 $93 +$38 (+68%)
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 18, 2026? Yes 90¢ 90¢ $45 $45 +$0 (+0%)
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 50¢ 16¢ $55 $17 −$38 (-68%)
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 50¢ 15¢ $55 $17 −$38 (-70%)
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? No 91¢ 96¢ $9 $10 +$0 (+5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 14 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +13%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 13, 2026? Jun 14 $30 +$3 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +16%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET BUY Up 84¢ $1 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Down 89¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Up 89¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET BUY Up 65¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Down 83¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET BUY Down 88¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Down 89¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $1 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET BUY Up 89¢ $1 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET BUY Down 90¢ $1 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $1 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $1 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $1 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET BUY Down 81¢ $1 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $1 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET BUY Up 81¢ $1 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $1 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $1 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET BUY Up 88¢ $1 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $1 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $1 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $1 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Up 86¢ $1 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $1 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $1 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $2 20h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $10,899.44 · official $10,899.69 (match) · 3245 history records