Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T14:11:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
04 0x0493…1177 crypto 167 markets active 0h ago coverage 72d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)✗ net negative once open positions are counted! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$1,145 (-5%) realized +$3,009 · open −$4,154
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR49%break-even
Win rate75%115W / 39L
Drawdown26%max
Avg bet$148per market
Trades / day5.1pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit87%portable
Net worth$1,518now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$17
7 days−$842
14 days−$133
30 days+$2,854
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 73% +$113
finance 13% −$1,268
other 6% −$115
crypto 3% −$64
politics 3% −$195
sports 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +49%
net ROI/market (all)-12.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 41 -2.5% -11.8% 78% 54% -51.4%
≤30d 93 -1.1% -10.5% 82% 53% +7.2%
≤90d 154 -3.0% -12.2% 75% 49% +3.1%
all 154 -3.0% -12.2% 75% 49% +3.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.2% 49% +3.1%
10% -20.6% 27% -6.7%
15% -28.3% 8% -15.7%
20% -35.3% 4% -24.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 37% · top 2 70% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +14% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
34% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt +14% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$37 vs −$40 · ×0.91 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×2.67 per $1 lost it wins $2.67
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

72d coverage
Net worth$1,518
Realized+$3,009
Unrealized−$4,154
Win rate (resolved)75%
Wins / losses115 / 39
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions13
Markets (closed)154 / 167
History coverage72d
Avg bet$148
Trades / day5.1
Drawdown26%
Kalshi-fit87%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 13 History 154 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $75 in June? No 77¢ 42¢ $1,049 $563 −$486 (-46%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? No 54¢ 4¢ $2,219 $185 −$2,034 (-92%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? No 80¢ 6¢ $1,700 $135 −$1,565 (-92%)
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in June? No 83¢ 55¢ $198 $129 −$68 (-35%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $123 $125 +$2 (+2%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $125 $124 −$0 (-0%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $85 $74 −$10 (-12%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 8¢ $65 $62 −$3 (-5%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 6¢ $42 $47 +$6 (+14%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 5¢ $30 $39 +$9 (+29%)
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 13.5 Total Corners Under 88¢ 83¢ $20 $19 −$1 (-6%)
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 12.5 Total Corners Under 78¢ 73¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-6%)
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Up 71¢ 55¢ $7 $5 −$2 (-23%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 12 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 15 $9 +$3 +36%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$3 +68%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 15 $36 −$3 -7%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +29%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 13.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $17 +$3 +17%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $10 +$3 +34%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $15 +$1 +7%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 13.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $15 +$1 +10%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 5.5 Jun 14 $15 +$6 +38%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 13.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $15 +$4 +24%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 7.5 Jun 14 $17 −$17 -100%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $1 +$1 +60%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $16 +$2 +12%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $10 +$1 +5%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $18 +$3 +17%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 4.5 Jun 13 $14 +$3 +24%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $1 +$1 +114%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5 Jun 13 $32 +$2 +5%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 13.5 Total Corners Jun 13 $12 +$1 +7%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 4.5 Jun 13 $13 −$13 -99%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 4.5 Jun 12 $11 +$1 +8%
Spread: Canada (-1.5) Jun 12 $11 +$1 +11%
Canada vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: O/U 13.5 Total Corners Jun 12 $11 +$1 +11%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -99%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -99%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -99%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 3.5 Jun 12 $10 +$1 +5%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 0.5 Jun 12 $10 +$1 +11%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 12.5 Total Corners Jun 12 $10 +$2 +16%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 13.5 Total Corners Jun 12 $10 +$1 +10%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $5 −$5 -99%
XRP Up or Down - June 11, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 12 $5 +$1 +15%
XRP Up or Down - June 11, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 12 $5 $0 +8%
XRP Up or Down - June 11, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +34%
XRP Up or Down - June 11, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 12 $5 $0 +4%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 11? Jun 11 $171 +$28 +16%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in June? Jun 10 $51 −$50 -98%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in June? Jun 10 $897 −$886 -99%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 9? Jun 09 $140 +$32 +22%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $78 +$10 +13%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 8? Jun 08 $120 +$16 +13%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 08 $5,309 +$711 +13%
Solana Up or Down - June 4, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Jun 04 $8 +$2 +22%
XRP Up or Down - June 4, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 04 $7 −$7 -99%
XRP Up or Down - June 4, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 04 $1 $0 +4%
XRP Up or Down - June 4, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 04 $6 +$1 +23%
XRP Up or Down - June 4, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 04 $6 +$1 +22%
XRP Up or Down - June 4, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 04 $5 +$1 +25%
XRP Up or Down - June 4, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 04 $9 +$1 +9%
XRP Up or Down - June 4, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 04 $6 +$2 +27%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Up 71¢ $1 5m
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Up 71¢ $1 5m
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Up 71¢ $5 5m
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET BUY Down 75¢ $1 10m
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET BUY Down 73¢ $1 10m
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET BUY Down 72¢ $1 10m
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET BUY Down 72¢ $1 10m
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET BUY Down 71¢ $5 10m
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Up 58¢ $5 12m
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $5 26m
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $5 27m
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $5 27m
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Up 86¢ $5 27m
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Up 80¢ $5 27m
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Up 79¢ $5 27m
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Down 84¢ $5 31m
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Down 83¢ $1 31m
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Down 76¢ $5 33m
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 12.5 Total Corners BUY Under 78¢ $10 37m
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 13.5 Total Corners BUY Under 88¢ $20 1h
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 13.5 Total Corners BUY Under 85¢ $2 12h
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 13.5 Total Corners BUY Under 85¢ $15 12h
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 74¢ $10 18h
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 93¢ $15 18h
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 13.5 Total Corners BUY Under 91¢ $15 18h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 72¢ $15 20h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 49¢ $1,625 20h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 7.5 BUY Under 89¢ $17 20h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 13.5 Total Corners BUY Under 80¢ $15 21h
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 89¢ $16 36h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,517.96 · official $1,519.44 (match) · 486 history records