Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T20:39:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
04 0x0494…631f crypto 1880 markets active 0h ago coverage 27d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 27d only
✗ bot/MM pace (87 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$729 (-6%) realized −$730 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR59%break-even
Win rate62%1010W / 631L
Drawdown19%max
Avg bet$7per market
Trades / day86.7pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$10now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$10
7 days+$383
14 days+$1,027
30 days+$1,114
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 91% +$1,097
other 6% +$173
sports 3% +$11
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (87 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +59%
net ROI/market (all)-1.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 583 +9.1% -1.3% 50% 50% +0.6%
≤30d 1641 +8.6% -1.7% 62% 59% -0.6%
≤90d 1641 +8.6% -1.7% 62% 59% -0.6%
all 1641 +8.6% -1.7% 62% 59% -0.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover86.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -1.7% 59% -0.6%
10% ← realistic here -11.1% 47% -10.1%
15% -19.7% 31% -18.8%
20% -27.6% 24% -26.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +10% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +9% · $-wt +10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +8% → late +9% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$6 · ×0.81 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.3 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

27d coverage
Net worth$10
Realized−$730
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses1010 / 631
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions2
Markets (closed)1641 / 1880
History coverage27d ⚠
Avg bet$7
Trades / day86.7
Drawdown19%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 1641 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET Down 46¢ 51¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+10%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET Up 46¢ 50¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+8%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 498 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 15 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 15 $6 −$6 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 22, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 22, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 15 $11 −$11 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 22, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 15 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 15 $6 −$6 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 22, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 15 $8 −$8 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 22, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 22, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 15 $8 −$8 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 22, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 22, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 22, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 15 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 19, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 15 $6 −$6 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 10, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -95%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -96%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 15, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$8 +159%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$4 +69%
BNB Up or Down - June 15, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$10 +201%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -95%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -95%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +23%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 15, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$5 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$11 +218%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +23%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$4 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -96%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET BUY Down 46¢ $5 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $5 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 27¢ $5 41m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 35¢ $5 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Down 24¢ $5 46m
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 15, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Up 37¢ $5 48m
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Down 34¢ $5 57m
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $5 58m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Down 33¢ $5 1h
BNB Up or Down - June 15, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Down 32¢ $5 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET BUY Down 19¢ $5 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET BUY Down 30¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET BUY Down 25¢ $5 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET BUY Down 75¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Down 80¢ $5 1h
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 15, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $5 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Down 33¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Up 30¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Down 80¢ $5 2h
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $5 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET BUY Down 43¢ $5 2h
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET BUY Up 39¢ $5 2h
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET BUY Down 57¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Down 31¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET BUY Down 60¢ $5 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Up 17¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Down 85¢ $4 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET BUY Down 27¢ $5 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $10.46 · official $9.97 (match) · 3500 history records