Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T21:50:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
04 0x049a…b22a other 232 markets active 2h ago coverage 609d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$3,190 (+9%) realized +$2,789 · open +$401
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +32% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +14% what you keep after slip
Net edge+14%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate45%101W / 122L
Whale WR47%big bets
Drawdown52%max
Avg bet$156per market
Trades / day3.9pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit70%portable
Net worth$1,375now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$187
7 days−$1,650
14 days−$1,701
30 days−$1,690
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 30% +$2,010
other 18% +$3,529
crypto 16% +$468
tech 13% −$2,074
world 11% −$1,212
sports 9% +$551
culture 1% −$108
economics 1% −$24
finance 1% +$12
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)+18.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 +49.9% +35.6% 50% 50% -47.0%
≤30d 14 +46.4% +32.4% 50% 50% -45.7%
≤90d 26 +94.2% +75.7% 35% 35% -39.1%
all 223 +31.5% +18.9% 45% 41% -4.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +18.9% 41% -4.7%
10% +7.6% 33% -13.8%
15% -2.8% 30% -22.1%
20% -12.4% 26% -29.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 20% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -33% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
9% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +31% · $-wt +8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 47% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early +8% → late +55% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
7.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$110 vs −$70 · ×1.57 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.33 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

609d coverage
Net worth$1,375
Realized+$2,789
Unrealized+$401
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses101 / 122
Whale WR (big bets)47%
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions9
Markets (closed)223 / 232
History coverage609d
Avg bet$156
Trades / day3.9
Drawdown52%
Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 9 History 223 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026? Yes 53¢ 56¢ $395 $416 +$21 (+5%)
Will the Republican Party hold exactly 52 Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections? Yes 1¢ 9¢ $27 $388 +$361 (+1358%)
Will OpenAI’s market cap be $1.5T or greater at market close on IPO day? Yes 12¢ 14¢ $169 $193 +$24 (+14%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 15¢ 14¢ $153 $136 −$16 (-11%)
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 15¢ 24¢ $75 $120 +$45 (+60%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 12¢ $56 $58 +$1 (+2%)
Will SpaceX's market cap be at least $3.5T at market close on last trading day of IPO month? Yes 5¢ 5¢ $47 $46 −$1 (-1%)
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Yes 16¢ 12¢ $16 $12 −$4 (-22%)
Will Michael Olise be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 1¢ $37 $5 −$31 (-85%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 16 $29 +$71 +245%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $30 +$52 +176%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $36 +$64 +180%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $95 +$105 +109%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $143 +$27 +19%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T? Jun 12 $2,132 −$1,848 -87%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $43 −$4 -10%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $83 −$5 -6%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? Jun 12 $466 +$202 +43%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.6T? Jun 12 $533 −$273 -51%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3T? Jun 12 $180 −$19 -11%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.8T? Jun 11 $213 −$21 -10%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? Jun 10 $228 −$51 -22%
Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 launch by May 21? May 21 $15 +$11 +73%
Will Cerebras' market cap be between $50B and $60B at market close on May 14 $0 +$2 +719%
Will Andrew Cuomo’s RCV margin of victory be between 3% and 6% in the Apr 13 $12 −$11 -86%
Will Lamine Yamal win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Apr 13 $34 −$34 -100%
Will Andrew Cuomo’s RCV margin of victory be between 6% and 9% in the Apr 13 $99 −$57 -57%
Will Ben Shelton win Wimbledon 2025? Apr 13 $26 −$26 -100%
Will Andrew Cuomo’s RCV margin of victory be between 0% and 3% in the Apr 13 $29 −$19 -67%
Will Jason Myers win the Super Bowl LX MVP? Apr 13 $4 −$4 -100%
US government shutdown by October 1? Apr 13 $150 −$150 -100%
Israel x Hamas ceasefire by July 15? Apr 13 $388 −$208 -54%
Israel x Hamas ceasefire by Friday? Apr 13 $272 −$93 -34%
Will Pump.fun reach $0.008 before August? Apr 13 $0 $0 -100%
Will Rory McIlroy win the 2026 Masters tournament? Apr 13 $30 +$564 +1880%
Will Sam Darnold win the Super Bowl LX MVP? Feb 10 $234 +$240 +102%
Will Kenneth Walker III win the Super Bowl LX MVP? Feb 10 $242 +$158 +65%
Will Ethereum dip to $3000 in October? Oct 22 $146 +$72 +49%
Bills vs. Falcons Oct 14 $34 +$12 +35%
Will Donald Trump win Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Oct 12 $481 −$108 -22%
Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 by December 31, 2025? Oct 11 $1,918 +$195 +10%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 by December 31, 2025? Oct 01 $1,159 −$82 -7%
Will Terry McLaurin leave the Commanders before Week 1? Aug 19 $95 +$12 +12%
Will Micah Parsons leave the Cowboys before Week 1? Aug 17 $91 $0 -0%
Will Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia in 2025? Aug 17 $260 +$40 +15%
Israel x Hamas ceasefire by August 31? Aug 16 $290 −$130 -45%
Ukraine recognizes Russian sovereignty over its territory by December Aug 15 $310 −$45 -14%
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair in 2025? Aug 09 $105 −$50 -48%
Israel x Hamas ceasefire before August? Jul 26 $700 −$632 -90%
Will Pam Bondi leave the Trump administration in 2025? Jul 21 $285 −$72 -25%
Pump.fun >$8B market cap (FDV) one day after launch? Jul 15 $355 +$351 +99%
Pump.fun >$5B market cap (FDV) one day after launch? Jul 15 $95 +$50 +53%
Pump.fun >$10B market cap (FDV) one day after launch? Jul 14 $268 −$126 -47%
Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 by December 31, 2025? Jul 14 $1,453 +$310 +21%
Pump.fun market cap (FDV) >$8B one day after launch? Jul 12 $124 +$75 +60%
Will Novak Djokovic win Wimbledon 2025? Jul 11 $90 −$20 -22%
Will Man City win the FIFA Club World Cup? Jul 06 $54 −$54 -100%
Will the Reconciliation bill receive 215–216 votes? Jul 06 $47 +$33 +70%
Will Al-Hilal win the FIFA Club World Cup? Jul 06 $39 −$31 -77%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 16¢ $16 1h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? SELL Yes 18¢ $6 1h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? SELL Yes 18¢ $12 1h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 25¢ $25 1h
Will SpaceX's market cap be at least $3.5T at market close on last tra BUY Yes 4¢ $6 6h
Will SpaceX's market cap be at least $3.5T at market close on last tra BUY Yes 4¢ $0 6h
Will SpaceX's market cap be at least $3.5T at market close on last tra BUY Yes 4¢ $1 6h
Will SpaceX's market cap be at least $3.5T at market close on last tra BUY Yes 4¢ $2 6h
Will SpaceX's market cap be at least $3.5T at market close on last tra BUY Yes 4¢ $1 6h
Will SpaceX's market cap be at least $3.5T at market close on last tra BUY Yes 4¢ $1 7h
Will SpaceX's market cap be at least $3.5T at market close on last tra BUY Yes 4¢ $2 7h
Will SpaceX's market cap be at least $3.5T at market close on last tra BUY Yes 4¢ $1 7h
Will SpaceX's market cap be at least $3.5T at market close on last tra BUY Yes 4¢ $1 7h
Will SpaceX's market cap be at least $3.5T at market close on last tra BUY Yes 4¢ $5 7h
Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026? BUY Yes 54¢ $135 21h
Will Michael Olise be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 4¢ $8 25h
Will Michael Olise be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 4¢ $0 25h
Will Michael Olise be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 4¢ $5 25h
Will Michael Olise be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 4¢ $3 25h
Will Michael Olise be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 25h
Will Michael Olise be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 4¢ $20 25h
Will SpaceX's market cap be at least $3.5T at market close on last tra BUY Yes 8¢ $14 29h
Will OpenAI’s market cap be $1.5T or greater at market close on IPO da SELL Yes 22¢ $1 29h
Will OpenAI’s market cap be $1.5T or greater at market close on IPO da BUY Yes 15¢ $29 29h
Will SpaceX's market cap be at least $3.5T at market close on last tra SELL Yes 8¢ $3 29h
Will SpaceX's market cap be at least $3.5T at market close on last tra BUY Yes 8¢ $5 29h
Will SpaceX's market cap be at least $3.5T at market close on last tra BUY Yes 8¢ $13 29h
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 15¢ $77 39h
Will OpenAI’s market cap be $1.5T or greater at market close on IPO da BUY Yes 13¢ $7 40h
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? SELL Yes 64¢ $32 42h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,375.32 · official $1,376.82 (match) · 2585 history records