Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T20:40:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
04 0x04a1…2845 other 55 markets active 1h ago coverage 486d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$23 (+2%) realized +$23 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate46%25W / 29L
Drawdown15%max
Avg bet$27per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit64%portable
Net worth$9now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days−$2
14 days−$2
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 43% $0
other 30% +$3
politics 15% +$21
crypto 8% −$1
sports 2% $0
tech 2% $0
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-9.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -0.7% -10.1% 12% 0% -10.1%
≤30d 19 +0.6% -9.0% 32% 5% -9.6%
≤90d 19 +0.6% -9.0% 32% 5% -9.6%
all 54 +0.4% -9.2% 46% 6% -8.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.2% 6% -8.1%
10% -17.9% 2% -16.9%
15% -25.8% 2% -25.0%
20% -33.1% 2% -32.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 61% · top 2 74% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
88% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +3% → late -2% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×2.15 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.84 per $1 lost it wins $3.84
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

486d coverage
Net worth$9
Realized+$23
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses25 / 29
Open positions1
Markets (closed)54 / 55
History coverage486d
Avg bet$27
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown15%
Kalshi-fit64%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 54 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Yes 12¢ 11¢ $9 $9 −$0 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Jun 20 $35 $0 -1%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? Jun 20 $35 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? Jun 20 $35 $0 +0%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? Jun 19 $36 −$1 -4%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 19 $3 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? Jun 19 $36 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 19 $36 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 18 $80 $0 -0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 03 $71 $0 -0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 03 $20 $0 +2%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 02 $75 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 02 $40 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? May 30 $33 +$3 +10%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia May 30 $63 $0 +0%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? May 29 $36 $0 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? May 29 $37 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 28 $3 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 27 $3 $0 +11%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? May 25 $35 −$3 -7%
Will the Cincinnati Bengals win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 17 $1 $0 +4%
Will the St. Louis Cardinals win the 2025 World Series? Dec 11 $2 $0 +1%
Will Trump sell 10k-25k Gold Cards in 2025? Jun 26 $29 $0 +1%
Will Ethereum reach $3000 in May? May 23 $2 −$1 -60%
Will Nikola Jokic win the 2024-25 NBA MVP? May 23 $1 $0 +1%
Will the Tampa Bay Rays win the 2025 World Series? May 18 $1 $0 -10%
Will Bitcoin dip to $70k in May? May 17 $30 $0 +0%
Will Switzerland win Eurovision 2025? May 17 $30 $0 +1%
Will Atalanta win the Serie A? May 14 $1 $0 -15%
Will Donald Trump visit Canada in 2025? May 13 $30 $0 +0%
Will federal spending decrease by $750b-1t between Q4 2024 and Q2 2025 May 12 $30 $0 +0%
Will the Socialist Party of Albania win the most seats in the next Alb May 12 $30 $0 +0%
Will Italy win Eurovision 2025? May 11 $30 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 325–349 times May 9–16? May 10 $30 $0 +0%
Will PRO win the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the 2 May 10 $30 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet less than 100 times May 9–16? May 10 $29 $0 +1%
Will Canada join US as 51st state before July? May 10 $1 $0 -37%
Will Anthropic have the top AI model on June 30? May 09 $29 $0 +0%
Will Malta win Eurovision 2025? May 09 $29 $0 -0%
US military action on Yemen by Friday? May 09 $29 $0 -1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $93000 and $95000 on May 9? May 08 $29 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150k in May? May 08 $30 $0 +0%
Will André Ventura be the next Prime Minister of Portugal after the 20 May 07 $30 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $125k in May? May 07 $30 $0 -0%
Will Zellnor Myrie win the Democratic Primary for Mayor of New York Ci May 07 $30 $0 +0%
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2025 Drivers Champion? May 06 $30 $0 +0%
Will the LA Clippers win the Western Conference? May 06 $30 +$1 +4%
Will Nikola Jokic lead the NBA in Rebounds? Apr 15 $30 $0 +1%
Ripple above $2.40 on March 28? Mar 29 $30 $0 +1%
2025 March hottest on record? Mar 28 $30 $0 -0%
Will Trump's approval rating be between 46.0% and 46.4% on March 28? Mar 26 $29 +$1 +4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $3 54m
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $6 54m
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL No 74¢ $35 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY No 75¢ $2 7h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY No 75¢ $34 7h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $35 11h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? BUY No 95¢ $35 13h
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? SELL No 84¢ $8 16h
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? SELL No 84¢ $4 16h
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? SELL No 84¢ $23 16h
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? BUY No 84¢ $21 19h
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? BUY No 84¢ $14 19h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL No 75¢ $31 22h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL No 75¢ $4 22h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY No 78¢ $36 26h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes $3 32h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes $1 33h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes $3 33h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? SELL No 72¢ $30 38h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? SELL No 72¢ $6 38h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? BUY No 72¢ $12 41h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? BUY No 72¢ $24 41h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $36 42h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $36 46h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $40 2d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 94¢ $40 2d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 94¢ $40 2d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 95¢ $40 2d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL No 51¢ $35 17d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY No 51¢ $35 17d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $8.66 · official $8.66 (match) · 172 history records