Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:26:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
04 0x04a1…378a sports 183 markets active 1h ago coverage 198d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$1,068 (-21%) realized −$1,068 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -23% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -31% what you keep after slip
Net edge-31%after slip
Net WR21%break-even
Win rate30%54W / 124L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$28per market
Trades / day1.8pace
Fees−$32est.
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$5now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$36
7 days−$129
14 days−$150
30 days−$208
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 38% −$318
sports 28% −$243
crypto 17% −$142
politics 13% −$443
world 2% −$13
economics 1% −$18
culture 0% −$23
finance 0% +$13
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +21%
net ROI/market (all)-30.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 30 -25.2% -32.3% 20% 20% -18.9%
≤30d 47 -35.9% -42.0% 19% 19% -20.1%
≤90d 102 -25.5% -32.6% 26% 21% -19.2%
all 178 -23.4% -30.7% 30% 21% -33.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -30.7% 21% -33.4%
10% -37.4% 21% -39.8%
15% -43.4% 21% -45.6%
20% -49.0% 20% -50.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 35% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -11% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
31% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -23% · $-wt -27% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -18% → late -29% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$12 · ×0.42 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.19 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

198d coverage
Net worth$5
Realized−$1,068
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)30%
Wins / losses54 / 124
Est. fees paid−$32
Open positions5
Markets (closed)178 / 183
History coverage198d
Avg bet$28
Trades / day1.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 178 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Yes 8¢ 8¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-6%)
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? Yes 28¢ 30¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+5%)
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-5%)
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Yes 19¢ 18¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-8%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in June? Yes 4¢ 2¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-51%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 100 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in June? Jun 17 $53 −$14 -27%
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play Jun 16 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Bitcoin reach $72,500 in June? Jun 16 $95 −$14 -15%
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof Jun 15 $1 −$1 -98%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playo Jun 15 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Valorant: G2 Esports vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playoff Jun 14 $1 +$2 +158%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $157 −$8 -5%
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? Jun 14 $95 −$12 -13%
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? Jun 14 $471 −$64 -14%
Valorant: Leviatán Esports vs Team Heretics (BO3) - VCT Masters London Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play Jun 13 $1 +$3 +291%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $328 −$18 -5%
Valorant: Team Heretics vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT Masters London Pl Jun 12 $1 +$1 +97%
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Pla Jun 12 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $44 −$3 -7%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $6 +$11 +186%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -97%
Valorant: Global Esports vs XLG Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Grou Jun 10 $2 +$5 +226%
Valorant: FUT Esports vs NRG (BO3) - VCT Masters London Group Stage Jun 10 $2 +$3 +165%
Valorant: Global Esports vs FULL SENSE (BO3) - VCT Masters London Grou Jun 09 $15 −$10 -69%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $3 −$3 -98%
Valorant: Dragon Ranger Gaming vs XLG Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters Londo Jun 09 $3 −$3 -98%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $5 +$6 +114%
Valorant: NRG vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Group Sta Jun 08 $2 +$3 +124%
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Grou Jun 08 $2 −$2 -98%
Valorant: Team Vitality vs Dragon Ranger Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters Lo Jun 06 $3 −$3 -98%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs NRG (BO3) - VCT Masters London Group Stage Jun 06 $3 −$3 -98%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 06 $5 −$5 -99%
Valorant: FULL SENSE vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Group S Jun 01 $3 −$3 -99%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 01 $5 −$5 -99%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 28 $2 −$2 -98%
Valorant: Global Esports vs Nongshim RedForce (BO5) - Esports World Cu May 24 $2 +$3 +140%
Valorant: DetonatioN FocusMe vs T1 (BO3) - Esports World Cup Pacific Q May 24 $1 −$1 -98%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 24 $2 −$2 -98%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 24 $2 −$2 -98%
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? May 18 $470 −$45 -10%
Valorant: FULL SENSE vs Paper Rex (BO5) - VCT Pacific Playoffs May 17 $465 −$16 -3%
Valorant: MIBR vs 100 Thieves (BO3) - VCT Americas Stage 1 Playoffs May 17 $300 −$9 -3%
Will Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) hit (HIGH) $410 in May? May 17 $40 −$2 -4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in June? SELL Yes 5¢ $39 1h
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in June? BUY Yes 6¢ $53 4h
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play BUY FUT Esports 35¢ $1 19h
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 19h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 8¢ $1 19h
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 28¢ $1 19h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 19¢ $1 19h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 8¢ $1 19h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 19h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 19h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 20¢ $1 19h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 19h
Will Bitcoin reach $72,500 in June? SELL Yes 19¢ $6 24h
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof BUY Team Vitality 38¢ $1 42h
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playo BUY XLG Gaming 23¢ $1 42h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 2d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 17¢ $1 2d
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 2d
Will Bitcoin reach $72,500 in June? SELL Yes 17¢ $15 2d
Will Bitcoin reach $72,500 in June? SELL Yes 17¢ $60 2d
Will Bitcoin reach $72,500 in June? BUY Yes 18¢ $95 2d
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? SELL Yes 21¢ $83 3d
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? BUY Yes 22¢ $95 3d
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? SELL Yes 10¢ $90 3d
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? BUY Yes 10¢ $106 3d
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? SELL Yes 10¢ $113 3d
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? BUY Yes 10¢ $131 3d
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in June? SELL Yes 4¢ $89 3d
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in June? BUY Yes 4¢ $107 3d
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? SELL Yes 10¢ $93 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4.89 · official $4.89 (match) · 427 history records