Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T21:40:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
04 0x04a1…4e2e sports 7 markets active 2h ago coverage 73d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge
Total PnL +$67 (+31%) realized +$67 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +53% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +38% what you keep after slip
Net edge+38%after slip
Net WR100%break-even
Win rate100%4W / 0L
Drawdown0%max
Avg bet$31per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$92now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 73d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 70% +$50
other 30% +$16
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +100%
net ROI/market (all)+38.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +59.0% +43.9% 100% 100% +44.7%
≤30d 3 +59.0% +43.9% 100% 100% +44.7%
≤90d 4 +52.8% +38.2% 100% 100% +39.2%
all 4 +52.8% +38.2% 100% 100% +39.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +38.2% 100% +39.2%
10% +25.0% 100% +25.9%
15% +12.9% 75% +13.7%
20% +1.9% 50% +2.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 57% · top 2 82% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +54% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +53% · $-wt +54% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$16 vs — no data
Profit factor
— no data
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

73d coverage
Net worth$92
Realized+$67
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)100%
Wins / losses4 / 0
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions3
Markets (closed)4 / 7
History coverage73d
Avg bet$31
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 4 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Scotland vs. Morocco: Morocco O/U 1.5 Over 49¢ 50¢ $33 $34 +$1 (+3%)
Brazil vs. Haiti: Brazil O/U 2.5 Over 64¢ 64¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-1%)
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Yes 47¢ 46¢ $29 $29 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Switzerland O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $56 +$38 +67%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $34 +$16 +48%
France vs. Senegal: France O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $3 +$2 +62%
Real Madrid CF vs. FC Bayern München: O/U 2.5 Apr 08 $28 +$10 +34%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 47¢ $29 1h
Scotland vs. Morocco: Morocco O/U 1.5 BUY Over 49¢ $34 1h
Brazil vs. Haiti: Brazil O/U 2.5 BUY Over 64¢ $30 1h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Switzerland O/U 1.5 BUY Over 59¢ $56 28h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $51 3d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $34 3d
France vs. Senegal: France O/U 1.5 BUY Over 61¢ $3 3d
Real Madrid CF vs. FC Bayern München: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 74¢ $28 73d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $92.28 · official $92.28 (match) · 12 history records