Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T09:54:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
04 0x04a5…3236 crypto 14 markets active 1h ago coverage 101d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$3 (+0%) realized +$2 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate100%11W / 0L
Drawdown0%max
Avg bet$45per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$126now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 49% +$1
other 16% +$1
tech 15% +$1
world 12% +$1
culture 8% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +0.2% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 2 +0.3% -9.3% 100% 0% -9.3%
≤90d 11 +0.5% -9.1% 100% 0% -9.1%
all 11 +0.5% -9.1% 100% 0% -9.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.1% 0% -9.1%
10% -17.8% 0% -17.8%
15% -25.7% 0% -25.7%
20% -33.0% 0% -33.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 41% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs — no data
Profit factor
— no data
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

101d coverage
Net worth$126
Realized+$2
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)100%
Wins / losses11 / 0
Open positions3
Markets (closed)11 / 14
History coverage101d
Avg bet$45
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 11 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will XRP reach $2.20 in June? No 100¢ 99¢ $55 $55 −$0 (-0%)
Will Vladimir Putin win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $50 $50 +$0 (+0%)
Will OpenAI have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026? No 95¢ 99¢ $20 $21 +$1 (+4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in May? Jun 19 $55 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $90,000 on May 17? May 25 $75 $0 +0%
Gensyn FDV above $1.5B one day after launch? May 15 $5 $0 +1%
Gensyn FDV above $200M one day after launch? May 15 $20 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in April? May 15 $50 $0 +1%
Genius FDV above $1B one day after launch? Apr 30 $75 +$1 +1%
Will Google have the best AI model for coding on March 31? Apr 14 $74 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on March 25? Mar 29 $34 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on March 24? Mar 29 $40 $0 +0%
Will Israel's Ben Gurion Airport reopen by March 7? Mar 23 $24 $0 +0%
Will Iran strike Israel on March 6? Mar 23 $50 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will XRP reach $2.20 in June? BUY No 100¢ $55 1h
Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $55 24d
Will OpenAI have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026? BUY No 95¢ $20 24d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $90,000 on May 17? BUY No 100¢ $75 35d
Gensyn FDV above $1.5B one day after launch? BUY No 99¢ $5 50d
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in April? BUY No 99¢ $50 50d
Gensyn FDV above $200M one day after launch? BUY Yes 99¢ $20 50d
Genius FDV above $1B one day after launch? BUY No 99¢ $75 65d
Will Google have the best AI model for coding on March 31? BUY No 100¢ $74 81d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on March 25? BUY No 100¢ $34 87d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on March 24? BUY No 100¢ $40 87d
Will Iran strike Israel on March 6? BUY No 99¢ $50 100d
Will Vladimir Putin win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $50 100d
Will Israel's Ben Gurion Airport reopen by March 7? BUY No 100¢ $24 100d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $125.82 · official $125.82 (match) · 25 history records