Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T08:26:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
04 0x04a5…28d6 other 40 markets active 7h ago coverage 21d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$3,427 (-19%) realized −$164 · open −$3,263
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate48%11W / 12L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$461per market
Trades / day3.0pace
Fees−$10est.
Kalshi-fit28%portable
Net worth$13,463now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$246
7 days−$157
14 days−$157
30 days−$157
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 98% −$3,367
sports 2% −$54
world 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-15.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 23 -6.4% -15.3% 48% 39% -23.9%
≤30d 23 -6.4% -15.3% 48% 39% -23.9%
≤90d 23 -6.4% -15.3% 48% 39% -23.9%
all 23 -6.4% -15.3% 48% 39% -23.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.3% 39% -23.9%
10% -23.4% 35% -31.2%
15% -30.8% 35% -37.9%
20% -37.6% 22% -44.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 36% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -16% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
18% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -16% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +13% → late -24% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$25 vs −$36 · ×0.69 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.63 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

21d coverage
Net worth$13,463
Realized−$164
Unrealized−$3,263
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses11 / 12
Est. fees paid−$10
Open positions11
Markets (closed)23 / 40
History coverage21d
Avg bet$461
Trades / day3.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit28%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 11 History 23 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 7¢ $15,900 $12,603 −$3,297 (-21%)
Will Canada win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 35¢ 60¢ $100 $171 +$71 (+71%)
Will USA reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 38¢ 44¢ $100 $117 +$17 (+17%)
Will Japan win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 28¢ 28¢ $100 $98 −$2 (-2%)
Will Austria win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 14¢ 14¢ $100 $96 −$4 (-4%)
Will Mexico reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 14¢ 14¢ $100 $96 −$4 (-4%)
Will Egypt win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 26¢ 24¢ $100 $94 −$6 (-6%)
Will Morocco win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 31¢ 28¢ $100 $92 −$8 (-8%)
Will Portugal win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 63¢ 46¢ $100 $73 −$27 (-27%)
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? Yes 29¢ 32¢ $20 $22 +$2 (+9%)
Will Brazil (6) be the highest-ranked team eliminated in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage? Yes 6¢ 1¢ $7 $1 −$6 (-88%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $21 −$21 -100%
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? Jun 20 $103 −$103 -100%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? AND Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $50 +$21 +42%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $20 −$1 -3%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 19 $31 −$31 -100%
Will South Korea win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $102 −$102 -100%
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 19 $10 −$10 -100%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $20 +$15 +73%
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $101 +$48 +48%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $20 +$51 +250%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $20 +$3 +14%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $20 +$1 +3%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $20 +$19 +93%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $20 −$15 -73%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $31 +$47 +153%
United States vs. Paraguay: Draw at halftime? Jun 14 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $101 +$4 +4%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $101 +$43 +42%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Draw at halftime? Jun 13 $20 +$21 +103%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $101 −$96 -95%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $21 $0 -1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Korea Republic (-1.5) AND Will Czechia win on 2026-06-24? BUY 11¢ $103 6h
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? BUY Yes 1¢ $103 7h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 7¢ $1,336 7h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 7¢ $2,056 7h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? AND Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY 7¢ $21 22h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 56¢ $20 22h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? AND Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? BUY 70¢ $50 24h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 12¢ $21 24h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 56¢ $20 25h
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 10¢ $10 29h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 8¢ $1,994 31h
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $20 35h
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $10 36h
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $20 38h
Will Austria win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 14¢ $103 2d
Will Egypt win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 26¢ $102 2d
Will Morocco win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 31¢ $102 2d
Will Brazil (6) be the highest-ranked team eliminated in the 2026 FIFA BUY Yes 6¢ $7 2d
Will Japan win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 28¢ $102 2d
Will Canada win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 35¢ $102 2d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 9¢ $2,055 2d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? AND Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? BUY 44¢ $102 2d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? AND Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? AND BUY 16¢ $21 2d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? AND Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? AND BUY 20¢ $20 3d
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 3¢ $10 3d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 57¢ $20 3d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $2,054 3d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $149 3d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? AND Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY 24¢ $20 3d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? SELL No 39¢ $23 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $13,463.35 · official $13,663.39 · 95 history records