Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T08:30:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
04 0x04b1…8554 crypto 1767 markets active 1d ago coverage 161d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 160d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL +$67 (+2%) realized +$67 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -17% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -31% what you keep after slip
Net edge-31%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate49%1024W / 1075L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day15.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$867
7 days−$536
14 days−$536
30 days−$536
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$224
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-24.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 389 -82.2% -83.9% 4% 4% -59.5%
≤30d 389 -82.2% -83.9% 4% 4% -59.5%
≤90d 425 -75.8% -78.1% 8% 5% -49.0%
all 2099 -17.0% -24.9% 49% 48% -23.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover15.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -24.9% 48% -23.3%
10% -32.1% 43% -30.6%
15% -38.7% 40% -37.3%
20% -44.7% 32% -43.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -44% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -17% · $-wt -15% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late -30% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.71 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.68 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

161d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$67
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses1024 / 1075
Open positions0
Markets (closed)2099 / 1767
History coverage161d ⚠
Avg bet$2
Trades / day15.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 2099 Trades
no open positions (500 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
XRP Up or Down - November 16, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - December 1, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 31, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - January 2, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - January 1, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 17, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
XRP Up or Down - January 1, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
XRP Up or Down - December 1, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 30, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - November 27, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - November 19, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - November 20, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
XRP Up or Down - December 2, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Solana Up or Down - December 1, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - November 29, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 3, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - December 31, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
XRP Up or Down - December 2, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 2, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - December 2, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Solana Up or Down - November 19, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 14, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - November 26, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Solana Up or Down - November 19, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
XRP Up or Down - November 27, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
XRP Up or Down - November 15, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - December 2, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Solana Up or Down - November 16, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - November 30, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Jun 15 $6 −$6 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - November 17, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 18, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - November 16, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 29, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 31, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - December 1, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - November 19, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
XRP Up or Down - November 20, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 2, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - November 30, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 15 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 1, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 19, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Solana Up or Down - December 1, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
XRP Up or Down - November 27, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Solana Up or Down - November 18, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Solana Up or Down - December 30, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 2, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - November 18, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 31, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - November 18, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 1, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Down 14¢ $1 34h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Down 12¢ $1 34h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Down 19¢ $1 34h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Down 19¢ $1 34h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Down 20¢ $1 34h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Down 20¢ $1 34h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Down 20¢ $1 34h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Down 23¢ $1 34h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Down 24¢ $1 34h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Down 24¢ $1 34h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Down 24¢ $0 34h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Down 23¢ $1 34h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Down 23¢ $1 34h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Down 22¢ $1 35h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Down 23¢ $1 35h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Down 20¢ $1 35h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Down 23¢ $1 35h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Down 23¢ $1 35h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Down 20¢ $1 35h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Down 23¢ $1 35h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Down 23¢ $1 35h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Down 23¢ $1 35h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Down 23¢ $1 35h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Down 23¢ $1 35h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Down 23¢ $1 35h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Down 23¢ $1 35h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Down 23¢ $1 35h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Down 23¢ $1 35h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Down 24¢ $1 35h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Up 6¢ $0 35h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records