Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T14:55:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
04 0x04b2…14c2 sports 70 markets active 4d ago coverage 99d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$131 (-5%) realized −$131 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate44%31W / 39L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$38per market
Trades / day1.3pace
Fees−$35est.
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$184
14 days−$111
30 days−$170
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 83% −$141
crypto 13% −$71
other 4% −$10
world 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-14.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 29 +13.3% +2.5% 38% 38% -19.2%
≤30d 61 +2.3% -7.4% 48% 44% -15.7%
≤90d 61 +2.3% -7.4% 48% 44% -15.7%
all 70 -5.4% -14.4% 44% 39% -17.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.4% 39% -17.4%
10% -22.6% 36% -25.3%
15% -30.1% 34% -32.5%
20% -37.0% 27% -39.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 24% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
13% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -17% → late +6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$23 vs −$24 · ×0.96 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.76 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

99d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$131
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses31 / 39
Est. fees paid−$35
Open positions0
Markets (closed)70 / 70
History coverage99d
Avg bet$38
Trades / day1.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 70 Trades
no open positions (27 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 20 $82 −$82 -99%
San Diego Padres vs. Texas Rangers Jun 20 $36 +$46 +128%
San Francisco Giants vs. Miami Marlins Jun 20 $25 +$11 +46%
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Milwaukee Brewers vs. Jun 20 $15 +$10 +66%
Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Yankees Jun 20 $199 −$185 -93%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $23 −$22 -98%
Grass Court Championships: Aryna Sabalenka vs Jessica Pegula Jun 20 $109 −$31 -29%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $23 +$49 +216%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 20 $147 +$57 +39%
San Francisco Giants vs. Miami Marlins Jun 20 $94 −$4 -5%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $26 −$12 -47%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 9.5 Jun 19 $134 −$39 -29%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 8.5 Jun 19 $136 −$7 -5%
Halle Open: Ben Shelton vs Taylor Fritz Jun 19 $118 −$36 -31%
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees Jun 18 $91 −$89 -99%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Milwaukee Brewers Jun 18 $19 −$10 -49%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 18 $199 +$90 +45%
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Toronto Blue Jays vs. Jun 18 $41 −$40 -99%
Grass Court Championships: Madison Keys vs Karolina Muchova Jun 18 $16 +$14 +92%
Nottingham Open: Viktorija Golubic vs Zeynep Sonmez Jun 18 $18 +$9 +50%
Seattle Storm vs. PortlandFire Jun 18 $20 +$24 +116%
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? Jun 18 $2 −$2 -97%
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees Jun 18 $121 +$71 +59%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $16 −$12 -71%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $7 −$7 -98%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 17 $16 −$13 -83%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $8 +$81 +980%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $13 −$13 -97%
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals Jun 17 $59 −$41 -69%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics Jun 17 $9 +$2 +21%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners Jun 17 $99 +$30 +30%
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals Jun 17 $56 +$43 +76%
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 10 $53 −$53 -100%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 10 $26 +$27 +105%
Cattolica: Miguel Tobon vs Alexander Vasilev Jun 09 $51 −$50 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 09 $40 +$7 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 09 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 09 $36 +$29 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 09 $13 −$13 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 09 $9 +$7 +71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 09 $9 +$7 +77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 09 $32 +$3 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 09 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 09 $5 +$4 +83%
HSBC Championships: Katie Boulter vs Leylah Fernandez Jun 09 $37 −$1 -3%
Houston Astros vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 09 $9 +$8 +88%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics: O/U 17.5 Jun 09 $4 −$4 -99%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $22 +$11 +48%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Dodgers BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 71¢ $82 3d
San Diego Padres vs. Texas Rangers SELL San Diego Padres 100¢ $82 3d
San Diego Padres vs. Texas Rangers BUY San Diego Padres 43¢ $36 3d
San Francisco Giants vs. Miami Marlins SELL Miami Marlins 92¢ $36 3d
San Francisco Giants vs. Miami Marlins BUY Miami Marlins 62¢ $25 3d
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Milwaukee Brewers vs. SELL No 100¢ $25 3d
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Milwaukee Brewers vs. BUY No 59¢ $15 3d
Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Yankees SELL New York Yankees 5¢ $15 3d
Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Yankees BUY New York Yankees 66¢ $199 3d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 21¢ $23 3d
Grass Court Championships: Aryna Sabalenka vs Jessica Pegula SELL Jessica Pegula 80¢ $22 4d
Grass Court Championships: Aryna Sabalenka vs Jessica Pegula BUY Jessica Pegula 57¢ $16 4d
Grass Court Championships: Aryna Sabalenka vs Jessica Pegula SELL Aryna Sabalenka 43¢ $16 4d
Grass Court Championships: Aryna Sabalenka vs Jessica Pegula BUY Aryna Sabalenka 57¢ $22 4d
Grass Court Championships: Aryna Sabalenka vs Jessica Pegula SELL Jessica Pegula 40¢ $22 4d
Grass Court Championships: Aryna Sabalenka vs Jessica Pegula BUY Jessica Pegula 67¢ $38 4d
Grass Court Championships: Aryna Sabalenka vs Jessica Pegula SELL Aryna Sabalenka 34¢ $17 4d
Grass Court Championships: Aryna Sabalenka vs Jessica Pegula BUY Aryna Sabalenka 63¢ $33 4d
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 100¢ $72 4d
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 31¢ $23 4d
Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Dodgers SELL Los Angeles Dodgers 93¢ $204 4d
Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Dodgers BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 66¢ $147 4d
San Francisco Giants vs. Miami Marlins BUY San Francisco Giants 11¢ $5 4d
San Francisco Giants vs. Miami Marlins SELL Miami Marlins 89¢ $151 4d
San Francisco Giants vs. Miami Marlins BUY Miami Marlins 52¢ $90 4d
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 4¢ $5 4d
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 9.5 SELL Under 54¢ $95 4d
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 9.5 BUY Under 75¢ $134 4d
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 4¢ $8 4d
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 4¢ $12 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 138 history records