Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T22:38:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
04 0x04b4…591a sports 57 markets active 2h ago coverage 18d
COPY-WORTHYcopy this
Total PnL +$885 (+46%) realized +$888 · open −$3
Gross ROI / mkt +52% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +32% what you keep after slip
Net edge+32%after slip
Net WR69%break-even
Win rate69%36W / 16L
Drawdown15%max
Avg bet$34per market
Trades / day4.4pace
Fees−$14est.
Kalshi-fit58%portable
Net worth$152now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$126
7 days+$228
14 days+$767
30 days+$832
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 45% +$133
sports 41% +$542
tech 9% +$74
politics 2% +$89
world 1% −$23
crypto 1% +$14
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
worth copying (survives realistic slippage)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +69%
net ROI/market (all)+37.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 34 +45.2% +31.4% 62% 62% +14.0%
≤30d 52 +52.3% +37.8% 69% 69% +33.1%
≤90d 52 +52.3% +37.8% 69% 69% +33.1%
all 52 +52.3% +37.8% 69% 69% +33.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +37.8% 69% +33.1%
10% +24.6% 69% +20.4%
15% +12.6% 58% +8.8%
20% +1.5% 54% -1.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 26% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +47% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +52% · $-wt +47% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +97% → late +8% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$34 vs −$25 · ×1.36 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×3.06 per $1 lost it wins $3.06
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

18d coverage
Net worth$152
Realized+$888
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)69%
Wins / losses36 / 16
Est. fees paid−$14
Open positions5
Markets (closed)52 / 57
History coverage18d
Avg bet$34
Trades / day4.4
Drawdown15%
Kalshi-fit58%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 52 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 14¢ 14¢ $50 $51 +$1 (+3%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 20¢ 20¢ $45 $45 +$0 (+0%)
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Over 67¢ 66¢ $30 $29 −$1 (-2%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 13¢ $20 $24 +$4 (+20%)
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? Yes 18¢ $10 $2 −$8 (-75%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $25 +$12 +47%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $46 +$56 +123%
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 20 $26 +$24 +95%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $20 +$14 +69%
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) Jun 20 $15 +$5 +35%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $20 +$14 +69%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $31 +$19 +61%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $15 −$15 -100%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Mexico 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 19 $20 −$20 -100%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Korea Republic O/U 0.5 Jun 19 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 19 $26 −$26 -100%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $36 −$36 -100%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $31 −$5 -17%
Spread: Canada (-3.5) Jun 18 $10 +$3 +25%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $25 +$7 +29%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $25 +$14 +56%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) Jun 18 $30 +$18 +59%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $20 +$30 +144%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $21 −$2 -12%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $76 +$53 +69%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $30 +$10 +33%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $25 +$16 +64%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $15 −$15 -100%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $21 +$9 +45%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $81 −$81 -100%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 16 $10 +$59 +574%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $10 +$24 +234%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $30 −$13 -44%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $40 −$11 -27%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $20 +$19 +92%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $10 +$37 +363%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 15 $21 +$51 +248%
Will Karl-Anthony Towns win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? Jun 14 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? Jun 14 $58 +$40 +70%
Spread: Spurs (-1.5) Jun 14 $147 +$231 +157%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 14 $66 +$74 +113%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $75 −$75 -100%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $21 +$36 +175%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? Jun 12 $124 +$32 +26%
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on Jun 12 $53 +$42 +79%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 213.5 Jun 11 $15 +$20 +128%
Stephon Castle: Rebounds O/U 4.5 Jun 11 $20 +$15 +72%
Spread: Knicks (-1.5) Jun 11 $53 +$55 +104%
Spread: Knicks (-1.5) Jun 09 $29 +$29 +100%
Victor Wembanyama: Points O/U 26.5 Jun 09 $30 +$24 +80%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 210.5 Jun 09 $62 +$32 +52%
Spread: Spurs (-4.5) Jun 06 $46 −$46 -100%
De'Aaron Fox: Points O/U 14.5 Jun 06 $18 +$18 +100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 67¢ $30 1h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 18¢ $10 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 67¢ $25 24h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 20¢ $10 24h
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? SELL Yes 55¢ $50 24h
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $26 26h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 20¢ $46 26h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 67¢ $36 29h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 58¢ $20 29h
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) BUY Brazil 73¢ $15 45h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 14¢ $31 2d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 14¢ $21 2d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $31 2d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 58¢ $20 2d
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $26 2d
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Korea Republic O/U 0.5 BUY Over 39¢ $20 2d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 21¢ $36 2d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 42¢ $25 2d
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 44¢ $15 2d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 49¢ $10 2d
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Mexico 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 49¢ $20 2d
Spread: Canada (-3.5) SELL Canada 86¢ $13 2d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 100¢ $33 2d
Spread: Canada (-3.5) BUY Canada 67¢ $10 2d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 76¢ $25 3d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 63¢ $25 3d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 48¢ $20 3d
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) BUY Colombia 62¢ $30 3d
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 0.5 BUY Under 11¢ $10 3d
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 28¢ $18 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $152.12 · official $152.12 (match) · 122 history records